NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope recently made a final observation of asteroid 2024 YR4 before it drifted out of range.
This rare data update refined the asteroid’s projected path and revealed a small uptick in its chance of striking the Moon, though Earth remains in the clear.
Webb Telescope Captures Final Glimpse
Asteroid 2024 YR4 may be out of sight now, but before it slipped too far from Earth to track, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope captured one final observation. This last glimpse, taken as the asteroid continued its journey around the Sun, delivered a valuable burst of new data.
Thanks to Webb’s sharp view, scientists at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, based at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California, were able to improve their prediction of the asteroid’s future path. They now have a 20% better estimate of where the asteroid will be on December 22, 2032. That fine-tuning slightly raised the odds of it striking the Moon—from 3.8% to 4.3%. Even if a collision did occur, it would not affect the Moon’s orbit.
Earth Impact Ruled Out
When 2024 YR4 was first discovered, it briefly raised concerns due to a slim possibility of hitting Earth. However, with additional observations, NASA has confidently ruled out any risk of impact with our planet in 2032 or beyond.
As more data becomes available, it’s normal for these probabilities to shift. In this case, the update came from an international science team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, using Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera this past May.
Out of View Until 2028
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to be seen by either ground-based or space-based telescopes. But it won’t stay hidden forever. NASA plans to make new observations when the asteroid returns to the inner solar system in 2028, offering another chance to refine its orbit even further.
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