An asteroid the size of a skyscraper, 2024 YR4, has caught NASA’s attention due to a slight chance — just over 1% — of impacting Earth in 2032.
While this sounds alarming, history shows that similar early warnings often fade with more observations. Scientists are watching closely, refining calculations, and gathering data to determine if this space rock will be another near miss or something more serious.
NASA has identified a near-Earth asteroid, 2024 YR4, with a slightly more than 1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This also means there is a 99% likelihood that it will not collide with our planet. As scientists gather more data, these probability estimates will likely change.
Currently, no other large asteroids are known to have an impact probability above 1%.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27, 2024, and reported to the Minor Planet Center, the global database for small-body tracking. It was spotted by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile. The asteroid, estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide, gained attention when it was added to NASA’s Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024. The Sentry system continuously monitors known near-Earth objects that have a non-zero probability of impact in the future.
An object that reaches this level is not uncommon; there have been several objects in the past that have reached this same rating and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in the reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in.
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4 Comments
Hope it hits DC.
I’d love to see something that could redirect an asteroid. Then us it in our enemies.
Let me know when one the size of Texas is going to hit.
How many Smoots is that in diameter? anything to avoid using the metric system right?