An El Niño that could beat 1997’s record is taking shape in the Pacific, leaving scientists watching for its next move.
El Niño is part of a natural climate pattern that returns roughly every two to seven years. Its most recent very strong events, in 1997–98 and 2015–16, disrupted weather worldwide. Consequences included fires in Indonesia and the Amazon, crop failures caused by drought in southern Africa, and heavy rain and coastal flooding in Southern California.
Satellite measurements show that the current El Niño resembles the 1997–98 event, with warm water stretching across the equatorial Pacific to South America. But that oceanic resemblance does not guarantee the same weather during winter 2026–27, as the outcome also depends on how the atmosphere responds.
How El Niño Builds Momentum
Every El Niño starts with a change in the tropical Pacific’s winds. Trade winds normally push warm surface water westward, leaving sea levels higher in the western Pacific than in the east. When those winds weaken, warm water begins moving back toward the central and eastern Pacific.
As warmth spreads eastward, the trade winds weaken further and sometimes reverse, allowing still more warm water to follow. This feedback loop helps El Niño intensify.
But strength alone does not determine its effects. The location of the warmest water and the atmosphere’s response also shape the outcome. “The search for the ‘typical’ El Niño is very elusive,” said Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “They’re all different in terms of where they land and how their impacts play out.”
Satellites Reveal the Ocean’s Heat
Scientists can track that developing pattern from space because warming water expands, raising the sea surface. Across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, unusually high water therefore provides a signal of El Niño’s heat buildup.
The maps compare sea surface height anomalies on October 13, 1997 (left), and October 12, 2026 (right). JPL scientists processed measurements from TOPEX/Poseidon and Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, respectively. Red shows higher-than-average sea levels, white indicates normal conditions, and blue marks lower levels. Seasonal effects and long-term trends have been removed to highlight El Niño and other short-term natural changes.
“What’s unique about altimetry is that we have a 35-year record from nearly identical satellites flying almost the same ground track, with each mission overlapping the next,” Willis said. “That lets us look back in time and compare this El Niño to what happened in 1997. And right now, this one is on track to be even bigger.”
Why The 1997 Comparison Matters
Although the 2026 El Niño developed much more abruptly, by October it shared two defining features with 1997: lower sea levels in the west and higher levels in the east, with warm, elevated water reaching South America. Willis thinks that resemblance could translate into similar impacts, including the abundant rainfall seen across California and the southern United States in 1997–98.
The powerful 2015–16 event shows why the arrangement of that heat matters. A map based on Jason-2 measurements from October 12, 2015, appears alongside the 1997 and 2026 comparisons. In 2015, the exceptionally warm, high water along the equator did not reach as far against South America. That winter, rainfall effects were concentrated more over Central America and the southeastern United States, with significant flooding in Mexico.
NOAA’s October 8, 2026, El Niño outlook assigned an 83 percent chance of a strong to very strong event through the first three months of 2027. Still, its effects during winter 2026–27 and beyond remain uncertain. El Niño’s influence passes through a chaotic atmosphere, and its signal becomes harder to distinguish beyond the tropics.
“There’s always a bit of a dice roll here,” Willis said. “Just because this El Niño looks like 1997 doesn’t mean it will be exactly the same—it’s just our best guess at the moment.”
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