A new study links North China’s historic June heatwave to human-induced climate change, highlighting significant impacts on public health and the economy. Led by Cheng Qian, the research advocates for global heat adaptation strategies and climate change mitigation efforts.
- In June, temperatures in North China hit record-breaking heights, with temperatures in Beijing reaching or exceeding 40℃ (104°F) for three consecutive days.
- The intensity of such events has increased by at least 1.0℃ due to human-induced climate change.
- Heatwaves like these will occur twice as likely even under proposed carbon-neutral targets and will be 0.5℃ more intense.
- Current emissions scenario will increase the probability of reoccurrence to over five times this century with a 2.9℃ rise in intensity.
A record-breaking heatwave occurred in North China in June, marking the first time that temperatures reached or exceeded 40°C (104°F) in Beijing for three consecutive days. A new paper, published on December 7 in IOP Publishing’s journal Environmental Research Letters, explores the extent to which such extreme heatwave events can be attributed to human induced climate change and how frequent and intense such strong heatwave events will be in the future.
The study was led by Cheng Qian of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, as part of an international consortium of research groups. Their work used two probability-based attribution approaches, an empirical approach based on observations and a coupled model approach, both with a low CO2 emissions, carbon neutral scenario, and an intermediate CO2 emissions scenario.
Qian, Professor of Atmospheric Science, says: “This study is a first attempt in establishing a real-time rapid attribution service in China, providing risk information on climate change to inform policymaking. Our findings highlight the need for change and measures to reduce emissions to address the consequences of extreme heat wave events.”
“Rapid attribution analysis can also inform the public of how climate change is linked to the severe weather they have recently experienced. Analyses like these promote awareness and push participation in climate actions to reduce the effects of climate change and contribute to the completion of carbon neutrality. The attribution results were released to the public eight days after the event on third of July,” continues Qian.
Heatwave events are characterized by intensity and length per geographical area, with the event in June resulting in negative effects on transportation, public health, energy supply, agricultural development, and economic growth.
A co-author of the paper, Professor Cunrui Huang from Vanke School of Public Health at Tsinghua University in China adds: “Our work has important implications across the globe, not just in North China. Countries need to implement a range of effective interventions to manage public health risks caused by climate change, including the development of heat adaptation plans and the establishment of heat-health early warning systems by government departments.”
Reference: “Rapid attribution of the record-breaking heatwave event in North China in June 2023 and future risks” by Cheng Qian, Yangbo Ye, Jiacheng Jiang, Yangyang Zhong, Yuting Zhang, Izidine Pinto, Cunrui Huang, Sihan Li and Ke Wei, 7 December 2023, Environmental Research Letters.
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad0dd9
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6 Comments
“The intensity of such events has increased by at least 1.0℃ due to human-induced climate change.”
Perhaps this should have been attributed to Captain Obvious since it is generally agreed that the global average temperature has increased about 1.0℃ since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Although, the implication of the wording is that humans are responsible for all that warming. It is unlikely that is the case. The peak of the last glaciation was about 20,000 years ago; thus, natural variation is undoubtedly still contributing to the warming that began then.
“A record-breaking heatwave occurred in North China in June, marking the first time that temperatures reached or exceeded 40°C (104°F) in Beijing for three consecutive days.”
A single, ‘unprecedented’ event may or may not be significant. The longer a system is observed, the more likely it is that low-probability events, out on the tails of the probability distribution, will be observed. As the saying goes, “A single swallow does not make Spring.” An established trend is more reliable.
“it is generally believed that…blah blah blah”. False. The science is now certain and unequivocal that abrupt exponential climate change is caused by human use of fossil fuels. This is a mathematical and scientific certainty. Your statement is entirely false.
The world is not in fact at 1.O deg C. The world is quickly approaching a calamitous 1.5 deg C, which we will surpass in 2024. The actual level of global warming is 2.2 deg C, which is catastrophic. The actual warming of 2.2 deg C, which we are now at, is calculated from 1780, when humans first began burning coal. The reason they are throwing around 1.4 deg C is because the IPCC moved up the baseline from which warming is measured from 1780 to 1930. This was obviously done by the politicians who did not want the public to know the actual state of affairs.
I would consider the words “abrupt exponential” to be an oxymoron. It says a lot about your understanding of mathematics.
1.0 deg C? What a joke. Global average temps have actually increased by an extremely dangerous and calamitous 2.2 deg C when measured from 1780, when humans first started burning coal. The reason we are now at 1.4 deg C and quickly approaching 1.5 deg C is because the IPCC moved up the dates from which global warming is calculated.
Today at the COP 28, China and Russia joined the Saudis in voting against language in the COP 28 report that would “phase down” fossil fuels. The Chinese government is ignoring the science and the facts even as their own people suffer and die from the effects of climate change.They will soon pay the ultimate price.
Truth is, abrupt exponential climate change was caused entirely by humans and humans will suffer the ultimate consequences in 2024 and within the next few years. Contrary to opinions and what the media is reporting, humanity and all Life on Earth are deeply imperiled. The world’s “leaders” and the fossil fuel companies are clueless and are driving us to certain near term extinction. Not in 2050 or 2100, the bogus dates that the media and the governments use, but before 2030 and perhaps sooner. These are the darkest and most catastrophic times in human history.
“The science is now certain and unequivocal that abrupt exponential climate change is caused by human use of fossil fuels. This is a mathematical and scientific certainty.”
I find your unsupported assertions to strangely have an air of certainty that an objective scientist would be hesitant to agree with. Science is not an infallible pronouncement by high priests in white lab coats. It is a process (Scientific Method) by which educated people attempt to understand how things work. It has a history of being wrong, and concepts such as the ‘ether’ have been discarded in what has come to be known as “paradigm shifts.” Contrary to what some politicians have said, and you imply, science is never settled. More than a century after Einstein proposed his theories of relativity, astronomers and astrophysicists are still testing them. As to your claim that mathematics establishes the certainty that you believe, you apparently haven’t noticed that I keep pointing out how rarely the uncertainty envelope for measurements is provided. When they are, they are often as large as +/-50%.
“These are the darkest and most catastrophic times in human history.”
That is certainly a very dark view. Comparing the Black Plague or the threat of nuclear holocaust to a temperature change that you wouldn’t be aware of if you didn’t have a thermometer leaves me wondering about your objectivity. Other, more notable people — such as an autistic minor from Scandinavia — have similarly claimed calamitous outcomes in less than 6 years. NONE of them have happened!
“Contrary to opinions and what the media is reporting, humanity and all Life on Earth are deeply imperiled. The world’s ‘leaders’ and the fossil fuel companies are clueless and are driving us to certain near term extinction.”
How is it that you, and apparently you alone, have come by this information? Do you have special sources that are not available to mere mortals such as myself?
Robert, unlike most of the mainstream ‘news’ sites, this blog allows links to citations. If you would like to actually discuss any of my “false” claims, I would be happy to do so. However, I would expect you to provide more than your personal opinions. A couple of links along with why you are providing them as support would suffice. If you ask, I will do the same.