Riskiest Asteroid Known to Humankind in the Last Year Will Not Strike Earth for at Least 100 Years

Dangerous Asteroid Approaching Earth

Asteroid ‘2021 QM1’ has been officially removed from ESA’s asteroid risk list. Another 1,377 asteroids remain. (Artist’s impression of an asteroid hurtling toward Earth.)

Impact in 2052 ruled out as the European Space Agency (ESA) counts down to Asteroid Day

Just in time for worldwide Asteroid Day: a threatening space rock lingered at the top of risk lists around the globe for months, with a real chance of striking Earth on April 2, 2052. Now, ESA’s asteroid team working with experts at the European Southern Observatory (ESO) has officially removed ‘2021 QM1’ from their asteroid risk list, a result of skilled observations and analysis of the faintest asteroid ever observed with one of the most sensitive telescopes ever constructed.

With Asteroid Day Live 2022 set for June 30, we can safely say that the riskiest asteroid known to humankind in the last year will not impact the Earth – at least not for the next century.

What was it like to track this asteroid? Get the full story in ESA’s fascinating behind-the-scenes look at how European experts handle asteroid risks in the official countdown to Asteroid Day live on June 30, airing at 10:25 CEST on AsteroidDay.org and via ESA WebTV.

Stars Hide Once-Risky Asteroid 2021 QM1

Asteroid 2021 QM1, once thought to have a chance of impacting Earth in 2052, was spotted passing through a region of the sky with the Milky Way just behind it. The small, faint, receding asteroid had to be found against a backdrop of thousands of stars, with red crosses indicating the path of the object. Credit: ESO/O. Hainaut

Impact 2052

2021 QM1 was first discovered on August 28, 2021, by the Mount Lemmon Observatory, located north of Tucson, Arizona. At the beginning, nothing stood out as unusual about the discovery – about a dozen new near-Earth asteroids are identified every dark night. Routine follow-up observations were subsequently acquired from telescopes around the globe, but these began to tell a more worrying story.

“These early observations gave us more information about the asteroid’s path, which we then projected into the future,” said Richard Moissl, ESA’s Head of Planetary Defense.

“We could see its future paths around the Sun, and in 2052 it could come dangerously close to Earth. The more the asteroid was observed, the greater that risk became.”

It’s important to note that orbit calculations based on only a few nights of observations are subject to some uncertainty, which is why asteroids often get added to ESA’s risk list soon after they are discovered and are then subsequently removed once more data is gathered, uncertainties shrink, and the asteroid is proven safe. On this occasion, that was not possible.

Unfortunate cosmic alignment

Just as the risk appeared to be increasing, an (im)perfect cosmic alignment occurred: the asteroid’s path brought it closer to the Sun as seen from Earth, and for months it became impossible to see due to our host star’s brilliant glare.

Asteroid 2021 QM1 Orbit

2021 QM1’s orbit as it passed closer to Sun in the sky as seen from Earth, soon after discovery. Credit: ESA

“We just had to wait,” explained Marco Micheli, Astronomer at ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Center (NEOCC).

“But to cap things off, we knew that 2021 QM1 was also moving away from Earth in its current orbit – meaning by the time it passed out of the Sun’s glare, it could be too faint to detect.”

While they waited, they prepared.

Priority access to one of Earth’s most powerful telescopes

The European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) was primed and ready. As soon as the 50-meter asteroid edged out from the sunlight – and if and when weather conditions allowed – ESO’s VLT would focus its 8 m mirror on the disappearing rock.

Dramatic Moonset Behind ESO’s Very Large Telescope

Dramatic moonset behind ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT), Chile. As the full Moon sets, the Sun is about to rise on the opposite horizon. The Very Large Telescope (VLT) has already closed its eyes after a long night of observations, and telescope operators and astronomers sleep while technicians, engineers and day astronomers wake up for a new day of work. Operations never stop at the most productive astronomical ground-based observatory in the world. Credit: G.Gillet/ESO

“We had a brief window in which to spot our risky asteroid,” explained Olivier Hainaut, Astronomer at ESO.

“To make matters worse, it was passing through a region of the sky with the Milky Way just behind. Our small, faint, receding asteroid would have to be found against a backdrop of thousands of stars. These would turn out to be some of the trickiest asteroid observations we have ever made”.

Faintest asteroid ever observed

Over the night of May 24, ESO’s VLT took a series of new images. The data arrived and Olivier and Marco began to process them, stacking subsequent observations on top of each other and removing the background stars: it took some time.

VLT Asteroid 2021 QM1

ESO’s Very Large Telescope captures 2021 QM1 which for months topped risk lists around the globe. This pivotal sighting ruled out Earth impact in the year 2052. Over the night of May 24, the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope took a series of images of an asteroid that had topped risk lists around the globe for months. These images were some of the trickiest asteroid experts had taken, as the faint asteroid 2021 QM1 receded from view against a very starry backdrop. A series of images were processed, stacked on top of each other and stars were removed, revealing the faintest asteroid observed. Credit: ESA

The result? A positive detection of the faintest asteroid ever observed. With a magnitude of 27 on the scale used by astronomers to describe the brightness of objects in the sky, 2021 QM1 was 250 million times fainter than the faintest stars visible to the naked eye from a dark spot. (In this astronomical scale of visible magnitudes, the brighter an object appears the lower the value of its magnitude, while the brightest objects reach negative values, e.g. the Sun is magnitude -27).

Olivier was certain this small blur was in fact an asteroid, and Marco was certain that given its location, it was our asteroid.

Safe at last?

With these new observations, our risky asteroid’s path was refined, ruling out an impact in 2052, and 2021 QM1 was removed from ESA’s risk list. Another 1,377 remain.

Asteroids June 2022 With Gaia

The position of each asteroid at 12:00 CEST on June 13, 2022, is plotted. Each asteroid is a segment representing its motion over 10 days. Inner bodies move faster around the Sun (yellow circle at the center). Blue represents the inner part of the Solar System, where the Near Earth Asteroids, Mars crossers, and terrestrial planets are. The Main Belt, between Mars and Jupiter, is green. The two orange ‘clouds’ correspond to the Trojan asteroids of Jupiter. Credit: © ESA/Gaia/DPAC; CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO, Acknowledgments: P. Tanga (Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur)

More than one million asteroids have been discovered in the Solar System, almost 30 000 of which pass near Earth, with many more expected to be out there. ESA’s Planetary Defence Office, NEOCC and astronomers around the globe are looking up to keep us safe, working together to ensure we know well in advance if an asteroid is discovered on a collision course.

Watch Asteroid Day Live

How worried are the world’s asteroid experts? How did it feel to track humankind’s most risky asteroid? Get the full story in ESA’s 30-minute program counting down to Asteroid Day live on June 30, airing at 10:25 CEST on AsteroidDay.org and on ESA WebTV.

Tunguska Devastation

Fallen trees at Tunguska, Imperial Russia, seen in 1929, 15 km from epicenter of the aerial blast site, caused by the explosion of a meteor in 1908. Credit: Photo N. A. Setrukov, 1928

Asteroid Day is the United Nations-sanctioned day of public awareness of the risks of asteroid impacts, held annually on June 30. This year sees its return to Luxembourg for an in-person event following two years of living entirely in the virtual realm. Asteroid experts from ESA, from across Europe and worldwide will converge on the city to take part in a packed four-hour live program of panels and one-on-one interviews.

3 Comments on "Riskiest Asteroid Known to Humankind in the Last Year Will Not Strike Earth for at Least 100 Years"

  1. Moot point—-will humanity be here in 100 years? I don’t think humans can live in an atmosphere composed of more co2 than is already in the atmosphere, and, is increasingly rising…..maybe this planet can start over again without ‘humankind’……not a bad thing. Bad animals…..an asteroid would actually be good for earth, to block out the sun for awhile, creating ice and moisture and new plant and animal growth…….

  2. The guy above… Moron… T
    And most science promotes fear porn to heard the sheep in line like ( guy above) believing thier bs and most the time thier decisions are done with a case of beer and rock paper scissors … And three choices.. not to mention most the media is also a bunch of dam liers paid by the globalist… Get rid of big tech and globalist leach’s and we be fine… Man above you are a clown thanks for being one of the people falling for their sht… Did you take the vax too

  3. dr mehrdad kesiri | December 6, 2023 at 12:08 am | Reply

    Greetings to the professors of astronomy in America, experimental doctor, dentist and researcher of the Ministry of Culture and Higher Education of the country in 1990 and the Aryan and Sasanian year of Iranians which was 2550. An inventor in that scientific research organization.And Iran’s industry, the scientists of the world cannot solve a problem theoretically and scientifically until they experience it practically, so experience is higher than science, and I am an experimental doctor, but my knowledge about astronomy and religions is, if not higher, thanthe knowledge of the world’s scientists..Not even!?I had many discoveries related to the history of the earth and the fate of life on earth and the knowledge of the solar system and the Milky Way.What problems are we facing because of the corrupt policies of the West, especially England and America, and the chaos that Russia is in the presence of God, and it was England and America that supported Iran’s Imam Khomeini (RA) with the coordination of France.And unfortunately, since Imam Khomeini came to Iran, the revolution became popular.Iran was hijacked by him, and the illegal mullahs and the theocracy of the Islamic Republic, which is the worst type of government in the world, came to power.These are Islamic religious governments.I could not progress in Iran in this dictatorial and criminal regime.If I were an inventor in any foreign country.And the researcher provided me with all the facilities and I was able to help the people of my country and… .. I ask the great powers to help the criminal and dictator regime of the Islamic Republic that Britain and America installed in it.Iran, like other governments that they overthrew, the Westerners and the world’s great powers, should overthrow the Iranian mullahs’ regime and the Iranian people who were held hostage by the Islamic Republic’s mullahs’ regime as soon as possible.And bringing independence, freedom and democracy to the country of Iran, which was the dream of the suffering people of Iran in 1979 and the Sasanian and Aryan Iranians in 2539 and 1400. If England and America did not support Khomeini in Iran and the government ofIran was not in the hands of a handful of mullahs, the situation of the people of Iran and the country of Iran would be much better.The Middle East countries are exposing the people of Iran.They know the truth.Why did Iranian people shout death slogans against America?I thought about this for forty years, but since the gods of Iran and Earth appeared to me, all the questions that were in my mind were answered by myself.The questions that were in my mind and I achieved the secrets of the earth and the secrets of the creation of the world, I have many things to say and I ask you Americans, researchers and great professors to convey my message that I, by theLord of the earth, in the comments of this place Scientific and technological website has been selected in political and religious sites.Thank you very much, Dr. Astronomy and New Religions of Iran.Most American gods are your guardians, but each country has its own gods that speak the same language as that country.I spoke in the following comments, if you have any questions in this field, I will give you the correct answer, Mehrdad
    If some sentences are grammatically incomprehensible and incomprehensible to you, the readers, and you did not understand, maybe you understood the general concept of the essay from the article and understood the content, this is a problem of translation.What are we?Give me a short message.Thank you Dr. Najoom and Adian Mehrdad for Iran, the bad regime and the dictatorial regime of Iran, with your help by informing political and religious sites, in the hope of God, Iran and the world will be corrected and a revolution must take placein Iran by the powers of Great in Iran, we the people of Iran are perhaps the most unfortunate people in the Middle East and Asia, because we are trapped in a religious government, which is the religion of Islam, which is the worst religion anddisturbing religions in the world.The nations of different lands should have one religion and religion, but Islam is one religion and one religion in one language.It is not the official status of countries and Muhammad, the Messenger of God, cannot be the prophet of all Muslims in the world until the end of time nomber mobil dr kesiri 00989332197646 time in iran 11:38

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