Thawing permafrost may release greenhouse gases much faster than previously expected, potentially accelerating climate change even further.
Experiments conducted by researchers at the University of Leeds, and published in the AGU journal Earth’s Future, show that when permafrost thaws, it becomes 25 to 100 times more permeable. This change allows significantly greater amounts of climate-forcing gases to escape into the atmosphere.
Permafrost, soil that has remained frozen for long periods and spans vast regions of the Arctic, has long acted as a natural barrier that limits the release of greenhouse gases. As global temperatures rise, however, this frozen layer is beginning to thaw.
Across the planet, permafrost is estimated to hold about 1700 billion tons of carbon, roughly three times the amount currently present in the atmosphere.
Thawing unlocks vast carbon reserves
The findings indicate that as permafrost thaws, it can release large volumes of greenhouse gases such as carbon and methane. This process may intensify climate change by creating a feedback loop in which warming leads to more gas release, which in turn drives further warming.
Professor Paul Glover, Chair of Petrophysics in the School of Earth, Environment and Sustainability at the University of Leeds, led the research. He said: “It is now widely recognized that climate change is leading to significant thawing of permafrost, with a 42% expected loss of permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) by 2050.
“The release of huge amounts of carbon that have been stored in previously frozen soils, predominantly in the Arctic, represents a very real danger, especially as it is known that climate change is warming the Arctic regions four times faster than elsewhere.
“The hypothesis that thawing of permafrost could release sufficient climate forcing gases not only to continue but to accelerate climate change is one step closer to being confirmed by the results we are publishing today.”
Experiments quantify gas flow changes
The study, carried out in Leeds’ Petrophysics Laboratory, examined how temperature changes influence both gas movement through model permafrost and the quantity of gas released.
Researchers gradually increased temperatures from -18°C (0°F) to +5°C (41°F), measuring gas release at each step. The most significant increase in permeability occurred between -5°C (23°F) and 1°C (34°F).
Methods borrowed from energy science
Co-author Dr Roger Clark, Senior Lecturer in the School of Earth, Environment and Sustainability at Leeds, co-authored the study. He said: “While these are significant results in themselves, showing how we are beginning to understand the mechanisms behind some aspects of climate change, they are also important because the measurements were only made possible by the adoption of methodologies previously developed for use predominantly by the fossil fuel industry.”
Professor Glover noted that these findings represent early results, although they are being supported by ongoing measurements.
He also pointed out that the findings have implications beyond greenhouse gases. Thawing permafrost may also release radon, a cancer-causing radioactive gas, which could pose additional health risks for communities in northern regions.
Reference: “Measurement of Gas Fraction and Gas Permeability of Thawing Permafrost Caused by Climate Change” by P. W. J. Glover, L. Tliba, R. A. Clark and P. Lorinczi, 24 March 2026, Earth’s Future.
DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007232
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5 Comments
“It is now widely recognized that climate change is leading to significant thawing of permafrost, with a 42% expected loss of permafrost in the Arctic …”
It isn’t the first time and it almost certainly won’t be the last. One should view the methane and potential carbon dioxide as simply being sequestered. Typically, bacteria and fungi will decompose organic detritus, but the onset of the Pleistocene interrupted and delayed the process of decomposition. If it doesn’t all get consumed during the the Holocene, eventually, it will be.
Total baloney. The climate was much warmer in the days of the dinosaurs. There was no permafrost back then.
What is the point you are trying to make?
“The hypothesis that thawing of permafrost COULD release sufficient climate forcing gases not only to continue but to accelerate climate change is one step closer to being confirmed by the results we are publishing today.”
“One step closer” does not equate to proof of the conjecture (hypothesis is probably overly confident). A significant problem is that there is no agreement on what the climate temperature sensitivity is to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Additionally, we don’t know when the current interglacial will end and the next glaciation will start. The work is interesting, but one should keep in mind that it is — at best — a working hypothesis with a number of unstated assumptions for an unspecified scenario.
Thus leaving the door wide open once again for everyone to see how insignificant we are across the board.