Observations of unprecedented ocean temperatures in 2023 may become typical in a world that is 5.4°F (3.0°C) warmer than pre-industrial levels, according to a new study.
From March 2023, the North Atlantic began to show extremely warm temperatures far exceeding anything seen in the past 40 years. As of August 2023, the North Atlantic was about 2.5°F (1.4°C) warmer than the 1982-2011 average.
Analysis of climate model projections showed that last year’s extreme ocean conditions were similar to what scientists expect to be the average if global warming reaches 5.4°F (3°C) of warming. Currently, global temperatures have risen by about 2.2°F (1.2°C) above pre-industrial levels.
New research, recently published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, examines the causes of the record-breaking ocean temperatures witnessed in 2023.
Dr Till Kuhlbrodt, of the University of Reading, led the study. He said: “The extraordinary heat in the North Atlantic and missing sea ice in the Southern Ocean in 2023 tell us the oceans are sounding an alarm. We urgently need to understand exactly why parts of the ocean are warming rapidly so we can prepare for more frequent weather disruption across the planet. How often we get hit by more of these extremes hangs on figuring out what’s driving the Atlantic and Southern Oceans into uncharted territory.”
Climate connection?
The study highlights that Earth’s energy imbalance is likely a key driver of extreme ocean temperatures, as the planet is currently absorbing more than 1.9 watts per square meter more solar energy than it radiates back to space as heat. Across Earth, over a time span of one year, this is equivalent to roughly 300 times the global annual consumption of electric energy.
This imbalance has grown fast over recent decades mainly due to heat-trapping gases from human activity. This increasing energy surplus is propelling ocean warming, with more than 90% of the excess energy accumulated by Earth being funnelled into the oceans.
Since 2016 the Atlantic Ocean has warmed faster than other ocean basins in the top 100 meters of ocean. This enhanced Atlantic warming may be linked to record low levels of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, the researchers suggest.
The rapid Atlantic warming has coincided with a sharp decline in sea ice cover surrounding Antarctica. In 2023, Antarctic winter sea ice extent reached by far the lowest levels since satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s.
The researchers emphasise the need to quantify how much the rapid Atlantic warming is impacting sea ice cover. Reliably attributing the oceanic and sea ice extremes will ensure climate models can accurately predict future extremes, which will inform mitigation policies and resilience measures across the globe.
Dr Kuhlbrodt added: “We need more data from the Atlantic to conclusively tie the warming and disappearing ice trends to a shift in the pattern of ocean currents, but the signals point to hidden climate connections between the poles.”
Reference: “A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change” by Till Kuhlbrodt, Ranjini Swaminathan, Paulo Ceppi and Thomas Wilder, 7 March 2024, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0209.1
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9 Comments
Water has a specific heat capacity — the amount of energy required to raise 1 gram, 1 deg C — much higher than terrestrial materials. Why should water be the harbinger of warming when the heating is taking place in the atmosphere and it takes so much more energy to warm water than rocks or vegetation?
The reference for this article says it all perhaps:
“A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change” by Till Kuhlbrodt, Ranjini Swaminathan, Paulo Ceppi and Thomas Wilder, 7 March 2024, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.”
Maybe pushing an agenda yet again …?
How the heck can they state:
” This imbalance has grown fast over recent decades mainly due to heat-trapping gases from human activity.”
Where’s the irrefutable documented scientific evidence, apart from once-again perhaps quoting (or alluding to), yet again, “green-house gases” and unverified climate-modelling – leading to IPCC “global boiling”.
Clyde Spencer, you are an idiot. The fact that the oceans a) have such a high heat capacity and b) have jumped in temperatue is THE TERRIFYING PROBLEM. Your post only shows you are confused and do not understand what you are talking about. THE TEMPERATURE that the oceans rise to is driven by the waste heat we keep dumping everywhere. Nature does not go, mmm, high heat cpacity, so let’s not warm that, YOU ARE NOT SMART, you are CONFUSED about REALITY.
Oh clueless one, there is no climate emergency or problem at all… it’s a NATURAL EVENT that has happened several times in that past.
Dissociated from reality you are, unfortunately.
Indeed it has…especialy in the warm 1920s, 30s. Before man-made CO2 was fashionable.
Drinkwater, 2006 wrote: “Ecosystem changes associated with the warm period included a general northward movement of fish. Boreal species of fish such as cod, haddock and herring expanded farther north while colder-water species such as capelin and polar cod retreated northward. The warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to constitute the most significant regime shift experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century.”
October, 1922: “The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto un-heard-of high temperatures in that part of the earth’s surface.” …”With the disappearance of white fish and seal has come other life in these waters. This year herring in great shoals were found along the west coast of Spitzbergen, all the way from the fry to the veritable great herring. Shoals of smelt were also met with.”
Unlike you, who obviously considers yourself much smarter than an “idiot,” I have never claimed to be smart. I asked a question, which you didn’t really answer. You made some unsupported assertions that I doubt that you can explain. Even climatology alarmists would take issue with your claim, “THE TEMPERATURE that the oceans rise to is driven by the waste heat we keep dumping everywhere.” Where does that leave you and your claims if even alarmists would point to radiative forcing from CO2, rather than anthropogenic waste heat as the source of the problem?
I would suggest that a little soul searching is in order to see if you can understand why you react so strongly to a simple question. I suspect that it is because your belief system is being threatened. Only you and The Shadow know for sure. However, it has been my experience that people who resort to insults do so because they don’t have facts or a convincing argument to support their beliefs.
Everybody cool down. Ask questions. Each person should try their best to answer the questions. No belittling! Do your research and please bring the info back. I would love to read all sides, do my research, and formulate my thoughts.
Thank You.
Oh, I have enough trouble correcting people on chemtrails. Forty-Seven years of piloting small Cessnas to 1, 2, 3, & 4 engine jets. Naval Aviator, A & P Mechanic, military drone instructor, and simulator instructor just to name a few accomplishments. I have never seen or heard any pilot or mechanic ever see anything on any aircraft the produces chemicals. People all the time send me proof of the dispersal of these chemicals and I have always been able to explain what they are misunderstanding. This is the last time I see or hear from them. I am never condescending and I try my best. I know aviation well and I have enough experience to talk with some authority. I am always willing to learn more and I acknowledge my mistakes.
Please help me and others who are less knowledgeable in the climate change arena to understand the issues.
Sunlight penetrates the ocean’s surface waters, directly heating the ocean. Greenhouse gases slow the loss of heat from the ocean and the air above it by capturing outgoing infrared radiation at higher and colder levels of the atmosphere then radiating out to space at low temperatures and lower energy levels.
That’s why the oceans are taking up heat. The radiation physics and cloud physics is complicated but the atmospheric physicists understand it even if we don’t.
“The radiation physics and cloud physics is complicated but the atmospheric physicists understand it even if we don’t.”
Assuming that the atmospheric physicists understand it is an act of faith. Physicists such as Happer and Clausen disagree with the consensus view.
Since you offered an explanation of how the system works, can I assume that you believe you understand it?