Hundreds of previously uncataloged Antarctic glacial earthquakes may reveal how Thwaites Glacier is changing near the sea.
When a towering piece of ice breaks from a glacier and crashes into the ocean, the impact can send vibrations through the ground. These events are known as glacial earthquakes, a form of seismic activity produced in frozen regions when large masses of ice fall into the sea.
Glacial earthquakes were first identified in the northern hemisphere more than 20 years ago, but Antarctica has remained difficult to read. Only a small number had been detected there until now.
In a study published in Geophysical Research Letters, I present evidence for hundreds of Antarctic glacial earthquakes between 2010 and 2023, most of them near the ocean end of Thwaites Glacier, often called the Doomsday Glacier because a collapse could drive rapid sea level rise.
A recent discovery
A glacial earthquake begins when a tall, narrow iceberg breaks away from the front of a glacier and falls into the ocean.
As the iceberg rolls over, it can slam back into the “mother” glacier. That collision produces strong mechanical vibrations in the ground, known as seismic waves, that can travel thousands of kilometers from the source.
These icy earthquakes are unusually hard to detect because they do not produce the high-frequency seismic waves that scientists usually rely on to locate typical sources such as tectonic earthquakes, volcanoes, and nuclear explosions.
Due to this difference, glacial earthquakes were only discovered relatively recently, despite other seismic sources having been documented routinely for several decades.
Varying with the seasons
Most glacial earthquakes detected so far have been located near the ends of glaciers in Greenland, the largest ice cap in the northern hemisphere.
The Greenland glacial earthquakes are relatively large in magnitude. The largest ones are similar in size to those caused by nuclear tests conducted by North Korea in the past two decades. As such, they have been detected by a high-quality, continuously operating seismic monitoring network worldwide.
The Greenland events vary with the seasons, occurring more often in late summer. They have also become more common in recent decades. The signs may be associated with a faster rate of global warming in the polar regions.
Elusive evidence
Although Antarctica is the largest ice sheet on Earth, direct evidence of glacial earthquakes caused by capsizing icebergs there has been elusive. Most previous attempts to detect Antarctic glacial earthquakes used the worldwide network of seismic detectors.
However, if Antarctic glacial earthquakes are of much lower magnitude than those in Greenland, the global network may not detect them.
In my new study, I used seismic stations in Antarctica itself to look for signs of these quakes. My search turned up more than 360 glacier seismic events, most of which are not yet included in any earthquake catalogue.
The events I detected were in two clusters, near Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. These glaciers have been the largest sources of sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Earthquakes at the Doomsday Glacier
Thwaites Glacier is sometimes known as the Doomsday Glacier. If it were to collapse completely it would raise global sea levels by 3 meters, and it also has the potential to fall apart rapidly.
About two-thirds of the events I detected – 245 out of 362—were located near the marine end of Thwaites. Most of these events are likely glacial earthquakes due to capsizing icebergs.
The strongest driver of such events does not appear to be the annual oscillation of warm air temperatures that drives the seasonal behavior of Greenland glacier earthquakes.
Instead, the most prolific period of glacial earthquakes at Thwaites, between 2018 and 2020, coincides with a period of accelerated flow of the glacier’s ice tongue towards the sea. The ice-tongue speed-up period was independently confirmed by satellite observations.
This speed-up could have been caused by ocean conditions, the effect of which is not yet well understood.
The findings suggest the short-term scale impact of ocean states on the stability of marine-terminating glaciers. This is worth further exploration to assess the potential contribution of the glacier to future sea-level rise.
The second largest cluster of detections occurred near the Pine Island Glacier. However, these were consistently located 60–80 kilometers from the waterfront, so they are not likely to have been caused by capsizing icebergs.
These events remain puzzling and require follow-up research.
What’s next for Antarctic glacial earthquake research
The detection of glacial earthquakes associated with iceberg calving at Thwaites Glacier could help answer several important research questions. These include a fundamental question about the potential instability of the Thwaites Glacier due to the interaction of the ocean, ice and solid ground near where it meets the sea.
Better understanding may hold the key to resolving the current large uncertainty in the projected sea-level rise over the next couple of centuries.
Reference: “Systematic Detection of Glacial Earthquakes in Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, by Regional Surface Waves” by Thanh-Son Phạm, 17 December 2025, Geophysical Research Letters.
DOI: 10.1029/2025GL118885
Adapted from an article originally published in The Conversation.
Never miss a breakthrough: Join the SciTechDaily newsletter.
Follow us on Google and Google News.
5 Comments
thanks for this information
“… but Antarctica has remained difficult to read. Only a small number had been detected there until now.”
That is understandable because they are smaller than similar events in Greenland. One would expect that if one uses seismometers located closer to the source event, that they would become detectable. WHY are the glacial earthquakes in Greenland and Antarctica different in magnitude?
“If it [Thwaites Glacier] were to collapse completely it would raise global sea levels by 3 meters, and it also has the POTENTIAL to fall apart RAPIDLY.”
What is the associated probability and margin of error for “potential?” Is an undefined ‘lawyer’ word used here because the best available estimate is simply, “not impossible?”
How is “rapidly” defined? Would it be a number of days or centuries?
Come on! This is supposed to be science, for which the common language is supposed to be mathematics. It is not a situation of some public defender trying to convince a jury that his client ‘could’ be innocent and therefore a verdict of ‘Not Guilty’ should be returned. A researcher has a professional responsibility to state clearly, exactly what is measured, what is estimated, and what is subjective conjecture, with the best estimate available of the probability and uncertainty of the conclusions. If they don’t have those numbers, then the researcher should state that it is a preliminary observational study that is was rushed to publication because of the importance and will be followed up by a thorough analysis and formal (null) hypotheses that the reader can judge for their validity.
My guess is you are a manager of other people’s labor and producer of nothing otherwise you would understand the nature of work.
Hektoria Glacier in Antarctica collapsed in about two months in 2022 from physical processes not included in the ice sheet models. The combination of buoyancy drivin calving and ice cliff instability created an unstoppable domino cascade of iceburgs until there was no more glacier. The same thing can happen to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.