An analysis led by the University of Leicester shows that the African continent lost around 106 billion kilograms of forest biomass each year between 2010 and 2017.
New research suggests that Africa’s forests, long seen as a powerful buffer against climate change, are now adding carbon to the atmosphere rather than removing it.
An international study published in Scientific Reports, led by scientists at the National Centre for Earth Observation at the Universities of Leicester, Sheffield, and Edinburgh, found that forests across Africa have shifted from absorbing carbon dioxide to releasing more carbon than they store.
The change appears to have occurred after 2010 and highlights the growing urgency of global forest protection efforts, an issue that featured prominently at the recent COP30 Climate Summit.
Tracking biomass from space
To reach these conclusions, researchers combined satellite observations with machine learning to monitor changes in aboveground forest biomass over more than ten years. Forest biomass represents the carbon held in trees and other woody vegetation. The analysis showed that Africa’s forests gained carbon between 2007 and 2010, but extensive losses in tropical rainforest regions have since reversed that trend.
From 2010 to 2017, Africa lost an estimated 106 billion kilograms of forest biomass each year, roughly equal to the weight of 106 million cars. Most of this loss occurred in tropical moist broadleaf forests, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and parts of West Africa, where deforestation and forest degradation were the main drivers. Although some savanna regions experienced gains from increased shrub growth, these increases were not sufficient to counterbalance the overall losses.
Professor Heiko Balzter, senior author and Director of the Institute for Environmental Futures at the University of Leicester, said: “This is a critical wake-up call for global climate policy. If Africa’s forests are no longer absorbing carbon, it means other regions and the world as a whole will need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more deeply to stay within the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change. Climate finance for the Tropical Forests Forever Facility must be scaled up quickly to put an end to global deforestation for good.”
What satellite data now reveals
The study brings together information from NASA’s spaceborne laser instrument known as GEDI and radar observations from Japan’s ALOS satellites, along with machine learning techniques and thousands of field-based forest measurements. Together, these data produced the most detailed map so far of changes in forest biomass across Africa, tracking a full decade and revealing deforestation patterns at a local scale.
These results arrive as the COP30 Presidency announced the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, a new initiative designed to mobilise billions of Pounds in climate finance. The programme would compensate forested nations for keeping their tropical forests intact. The findings underline that without swift action to halt forest loss, the planet could lose one of its most valuable natural buffers against rising carbon emissions.
Paths forward for forest recovery
Dr Nezha Acil, co-author from the National Centre for Earth Observation at the University of Leicester’s Institute for Environmental Futures, said: “Stronger forest governance, enforcement against illegal logging, and large-scale restoration programs such as AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of African landscapes by 2030, can make a huge difference in reversing the damage done.”
Dr Pedro Rodríguez-Veiga, who carried out the bulk of the analysis at NCEO and University of Leicester and now working at Sylvera Ltd., said: “This study provides critical risk data for Sylvera and the wider voluntary carbon market (VCM), and shows that deforestation isn’t just a local or regional issue — it’s changing the global carbon balance. If Africa’s forests turn into a lasting carbon source, global climate goals will become much harder to achieve. Governments, the private sector, and NGOs must collaborate to fund and support initiatives that protect and enhance our forests.”
Reference: “Loss of tropical moist broadleaf forest has turned Africa’s forests from a carbon sink into a source” by Pedro Rodríguez-Veiga, Joao M. B. Carreiras, Shaun Quegan, Janne Heiskanen, Petri Pellikka, Hari Adhikari, Arnan Araza, Martin Herold, Oliver Cartus, Thomas Luke Smallman, Mathew Williams, Chukwuebuka J. Nwobi, Narumasa Tsutsumida, Casey M. Ryan, Thom Brade, Nezha Acil and Heiko Balzter, 28 November 2025, Scientific Reports.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-27462-3
The work was supported with public investment by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Space Agency (ESA), and partner institutions across Europe and Africa.
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3 Comments
Perhaps, the removal of all the trees for wood products is a problem, and perhaps it’s another grant generated study. Seems, no matter what, we won’t be good until we stop driving, stop breeding and essentially go back to a population level that Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates feel is good.
Am I right?
Yes. About 750 million is probably bearable, given our rate of habitat destruction at present. That’s a non-scientific guess, Clyde.
“…, roughly equal to the weight of 106 million cars.”
The weight of “biomass” includes water and residual ash. How about converting the lost biomass to an equivalent amount of carbon or carbon dioxide and stating the net change as a percentage of the annual Carbon Cycle, or a ratio comparing it to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, instead of an implied big number that is only tangentially related? Throwing out big numbers isn’t an example of good science. It is just a form of advertising and advocating for a political viewpoint.
Why are pictures taken in the Amazon used in an article about Africa?