A new analysis revisits long-standing assumptions about life expectancy in the United States, revealing a more nuanced story than previously thought.
A new study co-authored by two University of Wisconsin–Madison professors finds that people born between 1941 and 2000 saw increases in life expectancy across every U.S. state and region. This contrasts with earlier research that suggested little progress, or even declines, in parts of the South.
Published in BMJ Open, the research was conducted by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas and Jason Fletcher of the La Follette School of Public Affairs, along with José Andrade of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Their findings challenge recent claims that gains in U.S. life expectancy have varied widely by region.
Drawing on updated data from the United States Mortality Database, the team found far smaller differences in longevity improvements since the mid-20th century than those reported in a previous study led by Theodore Holford of the Yale School of Public Health.
Instead of a steady widening gap between states, the researchers describe a more nuanced, two-phase trend. During the mid-20th century, Southern states closed much of the gap with the rest of the country, largely due to major improvements in child survival. In the decades that followed, this progress slowed, and the earlier pattern of convergence largely leveled off.
Challenging Earlier Estimates
“Our forecasts point to universal gains in cohort life expectancy between 1941 and 2000 for all birth cohorts, sexes, and states,” Pifarré i Arolas says. “States are not expected to experience equal gains in longevity, and convergence across states appears to have stalled since the 1950s, but we find no evidence of the radical increase in disparities across states suggested by some earlier estimates.”
Holford’s analysis concluded that many Southern states saw little improvement, or even declines, in life expectancy during the second half of the 20th century, while places like New York experienced rapid gains, increasing the gap between states. The new study disputes that conclusion.
For instance, Holford’s work suggested that female life expectancy in Mississippi did not improve over a 50-year period. The updated analysis in BMJ Open instead estimates an increase of about seven years.
Implications for Policy and Future Research
By examining trends at both the regional and state levels, the researchers aim to better understand what has driven gains in life expectancy. Differences in population characteristics and public policy across states make these comparisons especially important.
“Understanding that all states experienced gains—especially the substantial improvements in the South earlier in the century—helps shift the conversation toward what drove those successes and why progress has slowed since. That’s where the real policy lessons are,” Fletcher says.
As life expectancy gains slow in many high-income countries, as noted in recent work by Pifarré i Arolas, Andrade, and colleagues, this study adds to a growing effort to analyze long-term trends. By focusing on birth cohorts and using forecasting methods, the research highlights how policies and living conditions may shape how long people live.
Reference: “Life expectancy gains across US states between 1941 and 2000: a cohort study” by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, José Andrade and Jason Fletcher, 1 April 2026, BMJ Open.
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2025-109623
Never miss a breakthrough: Join the SciTechDaily newsletter.
Follow us on Google and Google News.