Earth’s Warming Hole – Is It an Indication of an Impending Climate Change Catastrophe?

Earth Fire Global Warming Concept

Despite global warming, a section of the North Atlantic Ocean, known as the warming hole, has been observed to cool.

University of Miami researchers discover that a swath of cooling water in the subpolar region is unrelated to an ocean circulation slowdown. 

The pattern of temperature change in the world’s oceans may not be a sign of an impending abrupt climate change event, as depicted in the film “The Day After Tomorrow,” according to a new study from researchers at the University of Miami’s (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.

In order to explore a pattern of temperature change in a region of water in the subpolar North Atlantic known as a warming hole that has been cooling over the last century, the UM Rosenstiel School researchers utilized a cutting-edge climate model. According to scientists, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which carries energy to the North Atlantic, has been thought to be the cause of this cooling. 

Earth's Warming Hole

During the past century, the global surface temperature has been increasing, except for a swath of region in the subpolar North Atlantic that is overall cooling, referred to as a “warming hole.” Credit: NASA

“However, our study shows the warming hole during the past century is unlikely due to a slowdown of the AMOC. Instead, the warming hole is actually a consequence of human-driven changes in the atmosphere” said Chengfei He, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the Rosenstiel School. “Our findings suggest that this warming hole will not result in an abrupt climate change event lethal to humans as depicted in Hollywood movies.”

Geological records, like the Greenland ice core, have shown that the majority of sudden climate changes in Earth’s history were caused by a slowdown of the AMOC. “The warming hole is believed as a fingerprint of the AMOC in the present day. Its appearance suggests the AMOC may not be stable. Our results do not support this idea,” said Amy Clement, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the Rosenstiel School, and a co-author of the study.

The researchers utilized a climate model that is a digital Earth that can recreate previous climate changes and predict future climate change. He and his coauthors ran the model with a motionless ocean to see how the North Atlantic temperature reacts to changes in the atmosphere caused by greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Because the ocean has no circulation, every change in ocean surface temperature is determined by the atmospheric conditions above.

Under global warming, the atmospheric westerlies shift northward and enhance the local wind over the subpolar North Atlantic and result in the warming hole.

“This cooling trend is partially compensated by the warming due to the rise of greenhouse gases and the damping effect in sea surface temperatures,” according to the authors. This study advances our ability to attribute patterns of change in the ocean to different factors, and hence improves our ability to anticipate how the ocean will change in the future.

Reference: “A North Atlantic Warming Hole Without Ocean Circulation” by Chengfei He, Amy C. Clement, Mark A. Cane, Lisa N. Murphy, Jeremy M. Klavans and Tyler M. Fenske, 23 September 2022, Geophysical Research Letters.
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL100420

The study was funded by NOAA Research and the National Science Foundation.

5 Comments on "Earth’s Warming Hole – Is It an Indication of an Impending Climate Change Catastrophe?"

  1. Have these researchers not seen “The Day After Tomorrow”!!!???

  2. “He and his coauthors ran the model with a MOTIONLESS ocean to see how the North Atlantic temperature reacts to changes in the atmosphere caused by greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Because the ocean has NO CIRCULATION, every change in ocean surface temperature is determined by the atmospheric conditions above.”

    However, because the oceans hold 90% of the surface heat energy on Earth, they strongly influence the atmosphere, particularly at the higher latitudes. I’m skeptical that their model can be reliable without ocean movement.

  3. Warming oceans near the equator – where sunlight is most intense – generate increasingly more powerful cyclonic storms, raising large volumes of heat and water vapor into the atmosphere, where a portion of the heat spins off toward polar regions. Because Earth’s equatorial regions are much larger than the polar regions, a one-degree increase in temperature at the equator can cause a ten to twelve-degree increase in polar areas. Thus, Greenland ice is melting. Large volumes of cold-water flow from Greenland into the Gulf stream – a portion of the global thermohaline ocean circulation system – weakening ocean currents, changing seasonal weather patterns, threatening food-growing processes, and destabilizing regional economies and cultures.

    There are enough greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere – and CO2 and heat in the oceans – to destabilize climate for the next thousand or more years. (Susan Soloman et al., Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, 2009 –

    During the past several years, we have crossed several global warming tipping points – the warming of the Arctic and the release of methane hydrates from the shallow sea beds north of Russia, the thawing of northern permafrost and the release of more methane, the accelerating melt of Greenland ice, the warming of deep oceans, the breakup of ice shelves in Antarctica, the frequency and severity of droughts and forest fires, the increasing intensity of cyclonic storms, and the accelerating cutting of forests everywhere.

    So here we are, more powerful storms, floods, looming food and water shortages, Putin’s assaults on democracy, a war in Europe, and the Sixth Mass Extinction.

    History tells us that sophisticated human structures and nation-states falter and fail when there is this much disorder in Earth’s natural energy flows and human social systems. (E. Hyams, Soil and Civilization, 1952 and W. C. Lowdermilk, Conquestof the Land Through Seven Thousand Years, USDA, 1953)

    In Earth Science, we have a word for disorder in material and energy flow systems: entropy. Entropy is disorder, discord, and things out of place. High entropy in natural systems is not good for humans – it means our life support systems are faltering and failing. Low entropy is good – our forests, soils, and oceans sustain themselves and maintain stability in the biosphere – with habitats suitable for plants, fungi, animals, and humans.

  4. So what happened to circulation during the 37 years of global cooling from 1938 to 1975?

Leave a comment

Email address is optional. If provided, your email will not be published or shared.