Earth’s oceans are rising at nearly twice the pace seen in the 1960s, fueled by warming water and accelerating ice melt. Scientists say they’ve finally solved a key mystery behind the rapid increase, strengthening confidence in climate predictions.
Sea level rise is one of the most visible consequences of human-driven climate change. As the planet warms, oceans absorb heat and expand, while melting glaciers and giant ice sheets add increasing amounts of water to the seas. Scientists say the process is persistent, difficult to reverse, and likely to continue for centuries.
A new international study has now provided the clearest explanation yet for what has been driving global sea level rise over the past 60 years. The research also resolves a long-standing discrepancy that had left scientists unable to fully account for all observed ocean rise.
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating Worldwide
The study, published in Science Advances and led by researchers in China, found that global sea levels have risen by an average of 2.06 millimeters per year since 1960. More concerning, the pace has accelerated sharply in recent decades, climbing to 3.94 millimeters per year between 2005 and 2023.
Researchers determined that ocean warming is the single largest contributor, responsible for 43% of total sea level rise since 1960. When seawater heats up, it expands and occupies more space, causing ocean levels to increase even without adding extra water.
Melting ice is also playing a major role. Mountain glaciers account for 27% of the rise, while the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes 15% and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contributes 12%. Changes in land water storage make up the remaining 3%.
The scientists found that different factors have become more important over time. Earlier in the record, ocean warming and changes in land water storage were dominant influences. Since the 1990s, however, accelerating ice loss from glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has become a much larger driver of rising seas.
Researchers warn that these trends are expected to continue in the decades ahead.
Scientists Resolve Sea Level Measurement Gap
For years, climate scientists struggled with a puzzling mismatch between measured sea level rise and estimates based on known causes such as warming oceans and melting ice.
The new study says that gap has finally been closed.
“For years, there has been a frustrating gap between how much the oceans were observed to be rising and how much we could explain from the individual causes. This work shows that, with better instruments, processes, and smarter analysis, this knowledge gap can be closed. We can explain sea level rise with greater confidence,” said Prof. John Abraham, School of Engineering, University of St. Thomas; co-author.
The international team included researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tulane University, the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, the University of St. Thomas, and scientific collaborators in France.
According to the researchers, several advances helped solve the problem. Scientists improved corrections to satellite observations that had slowly drifted after 2015, developed better ways to measure land movement near coastal tide gauges, and refined estimates of ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica.
Rising Oceans Expected To Continue for Centuries
The findings also highlight the long-lasting nature of climate-driven sea level rise. Scientists say that even if greenhouse gas emissions eventually stabilize, oceans will likely continue rising for many generations.
That is because oceans warm slowly and store enormous amounts of heat deep below the surface. Massive glaciers and ice sheets also respond gradually to rising temperatures and continue melting long after warming begins. Because of this long-term inertia in Earth’s climate system, researchers expect sea level rise to continue for centuries.
Reference: “Improved closure of the global mean sea level budget from observational advances since 1960” by Huayi Zheng, Lijing Cheng, Sönke Dangendorf, Benoit Meyssignac, Anne Barnoud, Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo and John Abraham, 20 May 2026, Science Advances.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aea0652
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