A new study has revealed that ocean warming is accelerating at an alarming rate, increasing more than four times faster than in the 1980s.
This rapid rise in temperatures is linked to a growing energy imbalance in the Earth’s system, intensified by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.
Ocean Warming Accelerates at an Alarming Rate
The rate at which the oceans are warming has more than quadrupled in the past 40 years, according to a new study.
In the late 1980s, ocean temperatures were rising by approximately 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade. Today, that rate has surged to 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade.
Published on January 28, 2025, in Environmental Research Letters, the study provides insight into why ocean temperatures in 2023 and early 2024 reached unprecedented highs.
Lead author Professor Chris Merchant from the University of Reading compared the situation to a bathtub filling with hot water. “If the oceans were a bathtub of water, then in the 1980s, the hot tap was running slowly, warming up the water by just a fraction of a degree each decade. But now the hot tap is running much faster, and the warming has picked up speed. The way to slow down that warming is to start closing off the hot tap, by cutting global carbon emissions and moving towards net-zero.”
Energy Imbalance: The Key Driver of Warming
This accelerating ocean warming is driven by the Earth’s growing energy imbalance – whereby more energy from the Sun is being absorbed in the Earth system than is escaping back to space. This imbalance has roughly doubled since 2010, in part due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, and because the Earth is now reflecting less sunlight to space than before.
Global ocean temperatures hit record highs for 450 days straight in 2023 and early 2024. Some of this warmth came from El Niño, a natural warming event in the Pacific. When scientists compared it to a similar El Niño in 2015-16, they found that the rest of the record warmth is explained by the sea surface warming up faster in the past 10 years than in earlier decades. 44% of the record warmth was attributable to the oceans absorbing heat at an accelerating rate.
Expect Even Faster Warming in the Future
The findings show that the overall rate of global ocean warming observed over recent decades is not an accurate guide to what happens next: it is plausible that the ocean temperature increase seen over the past 40 years will be exceeded in just the next 20 years. Because the surface oceans set the pace for global warming, this matters for the climate as a whole. This accelerating warming underscores the urgency of reducing fossil fuel burning to prevent even more rapid temperature increases in the future and to begin to stabilize the climate.
Reference: “Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance” by Christopher J Merchant, Richard P Allan and Owen Embury, 28 January 2025, Environmental Research Letters.
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
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14 Comments
“This accelerating warming underscores the urgency of reducing fossil fuel burning to prevent even more rapid temperature increases in the future and to begin to stabilize the climate.”
Without having devastating impacts on global economies, it’s not possible to “urgently” reduce CO2 emissions. That’s because decarbonized transportation is not yet able to feed eight billion people and also continue the transition to renewables. What that means is focus on better infrastructure to help survive and adapt to the future. Thus more oil will be needed and used until the transition is mostly complete.
Without a stable climate, there is no economy and there is no you or anyone you know. Humans are in the midst of the 6th mass extinction due to ecological overshoot, over population, and abrupt exponential climate change. There is no way to maintain the current capitalist economy and “phase in” clean energy. There is no time left. There is now 850 gigatons of C02 in the atmosphere, enough to kill all Life on Earth 20X over. Even if humans stopped all emissions today, catastrophic changes are here and are accelerating more every day. Time is now running very short for homo sapiens on Earth. .
Do you take into account the suns activities?
No co2 no life it’s the building block.
We have a pollution problem, that’s real. Our food is tainted, our air is packed with chemicals that don’t belong there. Climate does change and will change. It was a political debate developed in Russia over 100 years ago.
Simple question; why did the USA make the trade agreement with China in 72? Clue most that study the environment don’t know the answer.
You can kiss Dixie goodbye.
Not the sun but long term Milankovitch cycles that drive normal cycles of climate change. It’s very slow.
Case in point – it took 5000 years to warm 5 degrees Celcius after the last ice age. Now it’s 1 degree in your own lifetime.
Read beyond Truth Social.
“A new study has revealed that ocean warming is accelerating at an alarming rate, increasing more than four times faster than in the 1980s.”
Just a week ago there was a similar story about the warming of the oceans. However, the graphical data in that article undercuts the claims of a 4X increase in this article. Go to https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-sound-alarm-oceans-hit-record-high-temperatures-threatening-life-on-land/ and look at the third graphic in the story. It is obvious that the sea surface temperature anomalies have been increasing approximately linearly since about 1965, with a common flattening of the rate from about 1978 to 1988, and again in 2002-2012 and 2018-2021.
They admit that 2023-2024 warming (Which is about the same as the increase in 1956.) was the result of an El Nino event, anomalously high and long lasting, possibly because of of the Hunga-Tonga eruption in 2022. Yet, they include it in the end-decade that they compare to the 1980s. How about comparing 1964-1994 to 1994-2024, both 30-year periods (the time used to define climate)? The data are readily available, so why did they start in the 1980s?
This is an egregious example of cherry picking start and stop dates to create the narrative of alarm given here.
“…, the study provides insight into why ocean temperatures in 2023 and early 2024 reached unprecedented highs.”
The temperature may have reached “unprecedented highs,” but the rate of increase was not unprecedented, which is the central theme of this article, a recent 4X increase over the 1980s.
“The way to slow down that warming is to start closing off the hot tap, by cutting global carbon emissions and moving towards net-zero.”
This ‘research’ does nothing to support the assertion that the warming is the result of increasing global ‘carbon’ emissions. Therefore, their recommendation for supporting “net-zero” is only weakly supported.
“This accelerating [unsupported!] ocean warming is driven by the Earth’s growing energy imbalance – whereby more energy from the Sun is being absorbed in the Earth system than is escaping back to space. This imbalance has roughly doubled since 2010, …”
They fail to mention that the uncertainty of the imbalance is about +/-50%, meaning that there may be positive radiative forcing, but it may be so close to zero as to be indistinguishable from zero.
“…, and because the Earth is now reflecting less sunlight to space than before.”
The author is confusing albedo effects with emission of absorbed sunlight that has been converted to thermal infrared and is claimed to be hindered in its escape by so-called greenhouse gases. It isn’t obvious whether the author is a sloppy writer or doesn’t understand the system he is lecturing us on.
“44% of the record warmth was attributable to the oceans absorbing heat at an accelerating rate [Lacking compelling evidence for the acceleration over appropriate time periods!]”
Why would that be? Warmer air at the water/air boundary may cause increased evaporation, which will actually cool the water. Humans keep cool by evaporating sweat. Most of the warming of water occurs from absorption of sunlight moving through the water column. That can be increased by either increased light from the sun (for which there is little evidence) or decreased cloudiness, which is more probable. With shallow water, the heat is confined between the surface and bottom.
I’m left with the impression that these authors are not the subject matter experts that we are led to believe by their titles and employment.
I neglected to mention that decreased windiness will decrease evaporation and contribute to warming by absorption of light.
I think you’ve confused the fact that people retrofit facts to suit their agenda. This is why no matter what, we always get distorted outcomes based on facts
That is not a universal trait, and during one’s formal education, it should be stressed that objectivity be foremost in gathering and interpreting facts. I have previously remarked about Chamberlain’s Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses as a methodology or protocol for avoiding the temptation to jump to conclusions and turn a blind eye to contradictory evidence. I think that modern educators have forgotten the importance of the “disinterested observer.”
The news is printing about significant increases is volcanic activity in the ocean. Why do they act surprised here?
Is climate change just a way to employ socialism?
not in my house it’s not, bring it on !