A scientific investigation dismantles the widespread claim that an Iranian earthquake was actually a secret nuclear test.
Researchers at Johns Hopkins University analyzed seismic data and confirmed the event was a naturally occurring earthquake caused by tectonic activity. Their findings highlight the dangers of misinformation in geopolitically sensitive times, especially when scientific data is misunderstood or deliberately twisted to fit a narrative.
False Nuclear Test Claims Spark Misinformation
A new study has debunked claims that a magnitude 4.5 earthquake in Iran was actually a secret nuclear test. These claims, which spread widely on social media and even some mainstream news outlets in October 2024, emerged during a time of heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Conducted by scientists at Johns Hopkins University, the study highlights the risks of misinterpreting scientific data, especially in times of international conflict. The findings were published today (February 4) in the journal Seismica.
“There was a concerted misinformation and disinformation campaign around this event that promoted the idea this was a nuclear test, which is not something you often see happen with an earthquake,” said Benjamin Fernando, a Johns Hopkins seismologist who led the study. “This shows how geophysical data played an important role in a geopolitical crisis.”
The Earthquake’s Natural Origins
The earthquake struck on October 5, 2024, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) southwest of Semnan in northern Iran, and roughly 216 kilometers (134 miles) east of Tehran. Iran experiences frequent earthquakes due to its location at the meeting point of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates.
Fernando’s team analyzed seismic signals from the event, identifying natural seismic activity caused by the earthquake. Using publicly available data from seismic monitoring stations, the researchers concluded that the earthquake originated along a gently sloping fault where Earth’s crust was being deformed by the collision between Arabia and Eurasia. The process aligns with the geophysical forces that characterize the region’s tectonically active interior and rules out any connection to a particularly unusual source or nuclear test, the study concludes.
How Nuclear Tests and Earthquakes Differ
“Seismic waves carry information about the earthquake that produced them as they propagate around the planet. By recording the waves at different points on the Earth’s surface, we can work out what the properties of the source that produced them were,” Fernando said. “In this case, the source was what we call a reverse fault—a motion associated with the Earth’s crust being crushed as the Arabian and Eurasian plates collide. Nuclear tests have very different signatures, which are explosive.”
Historical seismic data further supports this conclusion, Fernando said. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), which monitors nuclear tests worldwide, reported that earthquakes with similar characteristics and magnitudes occurred in the same region in 2015 and 2018—both unrelated to nuclear activity.
Misinformation Spreads in Minutes
Despite the clear scientific evidence of natural seismic activity, claims that the earthquake was a nuclear test began spreading rapidly on social media just 17 minutes after the event. Initial tweets misinterpreted seismic data, which soon gave way to misinformation and likely active disinformation, Fernando said.
The first suggestion that this was a nuclear test appeared on Twitter/X 27 minutes after the earthquake. Over the following hours, misinformation escalated, with some posts citing seismic data from an entirely different earthquake in Armenia earlier that day to substantiate the nuclear test narrative.
Disinformation and Foreign Influence
The misinformation gained traction as conspiracy theories linked the Iranian earthquake to a supposed seismic event in Israel the same evening. While the study noted that it is difficult to confirm deliberate disinformation, the sustained engagement and specialized use of seismology data on social media suggest potential human authors with expertise. One of the most widely shared posts promoting the nuclear test theory came from an account tied to Russian-supported disinformation campaigns, the researchers found.
Within hours of the event, the false narrative moved from social media to news reports worldwide. Indian English-language media were the most active in reporting the nuclear test claims, often referencing each other’s stories, and citing the incorrect seismic data. The researchers also identified media reports from the United States, Israel, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, France, and the United Kingdom.
In contrast, Persian-language media generally described the event accurately as a natural earthquake. These reports drew on local expert commentary and official seismic data more often than English-language media, offering a more precise understanding of the event.
The Need for Rapid Scientific Fact-Checking
The researchers recommended greater rapid-response collaborations among seismologists to quickly fact-check and correct misinterpretations of data, and to more actively counter misinformation.
“Scientific agencies could issue detailed reports swiftly to counter misinformation,” said co-author Saman Karimi, a Johns Hopkins geophysicist. “Giving amplification to contents coming from verified scientific accounts could help reduce the misleading narrative. This can be done via partnership between social media platforms and trusted seismologists or agencies such as the U.S. Geological Survey.”
Reference: “The propagation of seismic waves, misinformation, and disinformation from the 2024-10-05 M 4.5 Iran earthquake” by Benjamin Fernando, Ross Maguire, Brianna Fernandez, Saman Karimi, Elizabeth Koenck, Göran Ekström, Tom Rivlin and Celeste Labedz, 4 February 2025, Seismica.
DOI: 10.26443/seismica.v4i1.1512
Other authors are Ross Maguire of University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Brianna Fernandez of Brown University, Elizabeth Koenck of Georgetown University, Göran Ekström of Columbia University, Tom Rivlin of Technische Universität Wien, and Celeste Labedz of University of Chicago.
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