A new study examined the impact of exposure on infants’ health.
Lead concentrations in the air remain significant in both developed and developing countries, primarily due to industrial emissions. Despite the reduction of lead in gasoline, developed nations, including the United States, continue to emit substantial amounts of airborne lead. As a result, blood lead levels in children remain elevated worldwide.
A recent study analyzed data on airborne lead emissions to assess their impact on infant mortality. The findings revealed a statistically significant correlation between air lead concentration and infant mortality rates, highlighting the ongoing health risks associated with lead exposure.
Conducted by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, Boston College, and Hunan University, the study is an NBER Working Paper.
“Although many studies have examined the adverse effects of lead on children’s cognitive and behavioral outcomes, few have analyzed the effect of exposure to lead on infants’ health, so we know little about the extent of harm to infants’ health from airborne lead in settings with modern medical care and at modern exposure levels,” explains Karen Clay, professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon’s Heinz College, who led the study.
Data Sources and Methodology
Lead is known to cause adverse health effects in humans across a range of exposures. In this study, researchers used data on lead emissions from the U.S. Toxic Release Inventory (TRI), which was created in 1986 in response to chemical releases in Bhopal in 1984 and in West Virginia in 1985; the TRI covers 650 chemicals. The causal effect of lead on infant mortality is identified by annual variation in air fugitive lead emissions interacted with wind speed near reporting plants, which together determine local ambient lead concentration.
Researchers also analyzed lead monitor data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s Air Quality System, wind data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, and infant health data from the National Vital Statistics system of the National Center for Health Statistics. The study included 127 U.S. counties that have plants with lead emissions within two miles of EPA lead monitors and within 10 miles of a wind monitor.
Airborne Lead Increases Infant Mortality
Higher concentrations of lead in the air caused higher levels of infant mortality in infants’ first month and first year, suggesting that both in utero and environmental exposures matter, the study found. In addition, higher lead concentration boosted deaths from low birthweight, sudden unexplained infant death, and respiratory and nervous system causes.
“Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that declines in fugitive lead emissions prevented 34 to 59 infant deaths per year, generating benefits of $380 million to $670 million annually,” says Edson Severnini, associate professor of economics at Boston College, who co-authored the study.
“In the United States, industrial firms and the aviation industry still emit hundreds of thousands of pounds of lead into the air,” notes Xiao Wang, assistant professor of economics and trade at Hunan University, who co-authored the study. “Our new estimates can inform investments in reducing air lead emissions and soil cleanups.”
Reference: “The Hidden Toll of Airborne Lead: Infant Mortality Impacts of Industrial Lead Pollution” by Karen Clay, Edson R. Severnini and Xiao Wang, February 2025, NBER Working Paper.
DOI: 10.3386/w33447
The research was funded by Heinz College at Carnegie Mellon University.
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