Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a recently discovered near-Earth object (NEO) currently being closely monitored by NASA’s planetary defense teams. Initial observations suggested a potential risk of impact with Earth in the future, but updated calculations have significantly reduced this possibility. As of the latest data, the asteroid has an extremely low probability — 0.28% — of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. However, its chances of colliding with the Moon have slightly increased to 1%.
The asteroid’s orbit continues to be refined through ongoing observations, with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Sentry system providing real-time updates on its trajectory. While asteroid 2024 YR4 does not currently pose a significant threat, scientists remain vigilant, tracking its movements to ensure accurate predictions and to assess any potential future risks.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object of the Apollo type, with an estimated diameter between 40 and 90 meters. It was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) at its Chilean station in Río Hurtado.
Preliminary analyses suggest that 2024 YR4 is likely a stony S-type asteroid with a rotation period of approximately 19.5 minutes. Its most recent close approach to Earth occurred on December 25, 2024, at a distance of about 828,800 kilometers (approximately 2.16 times the distance to the Moon). The next notable approach is projected for December 17, 2028, which will provide astronomers with an opportunity to gather additional data and further refine the asteroid’s orbital parameters.
In response to the initial impact risk assessment, international planetary defense protocols were activated. Observatories worldwide have been conducting continuous monitoring to track 2024 YR4’s trajectory more accurately. The James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe the asteroid between March and May 2025, aiming to provide more precise measurements of its size and orbit.
While the current probability of an Earth impact in 2032 has been significantly reduced, ongoing observations are essential to monitor any future changes in 2024 YR4’s trajectory. Additionally, there is a 1% chance that the asteroid could impact the Moon on December 22, 2032, which would result in a visible event for lunar observers.
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