Astronomers are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which once had the highest recorded impact probability for its size. Current estimates place its chance of hitting Earth at 1.5% in 2032, with a smaller risk for the Moon.
With the full moon now past, the skies have darkened, allowing astronomers to resume observations of asteroid 2024 YR4. Ground-based telescopes need minimal light pollution to detect asteroids, which are often faint and difficult to spot. During a full moon, the sky is too bright, making observations nearly impossible.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California has analyzed new data reported to the Minor Planet Center. On February 18, updated calculations placed the asteroid’s impact probability for December 22, 2032, at 3.1% — the highest ever recorded for an object of this size or larger. However, by February 19, new overnight observations refined the estimate, lowering the impact probability to 1.5%.
Refining the Asteroid’s Path
Each additional night of observations helps scientists narrow down the asteroid’s possible trajectory and better assess any potential risk to Earth. NASA expects these probability estimates to continue changing as more data is collected in the coming days and weeks.
These recent observations have further constrained the uncertainty around the asteroid’s trajectory, and the yellow dots in the above graphics represent possible locations of the asteroid on December 22, 2032. As we continue to observe the asteroid’s motion over time, the region of possible locations will shrink even further. For the impact probability to drop to zero, the Earth would need to fall outside of the range of potential locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032.
Potential Impact on the Moon
Additionally, there is also a – much lower — chance this asteroid could impact the Moon. Current calculations estimate this impact probability to be 0.8%.
NASA’s Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission, set to launch no earlier than September 2027, will accelerate NASA’s ability to discover unknown asteroids by hunting for them in the infrared. While dark in visible light, asteroids and comets glow in the infrared as they’re heated by sunlight. In addition, NEO Surveyor will add an in-space vantage point that complements ground-based observatories.
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5 Comments
There is no more reliable data till 2028, this current data is worthless, numbers quoted are wrong, and then it’s gonna be to late, then we get to deal with apophsis.
this and global warming started by the sumatra tsunami in 2004, and increased by the tonga 2022 tsunami
the climate scientist are flipping out as to why their models are all failures now since Tonga 2022, and not one understands that it all started with the 12.26.2004 Bande Ache Sumatra Tsunami.
since that happened I have been preaching “Watch for the coming Earth Changes, there’s nothing we can do to stop what’s coming”
one can only hope that it hits… 😉
…..the right place.
there is no right place, entire server been aching for a reset these last couple years.
2032, will be the 7th (or 11th) anniversary of the reign our new holy emperor, or one of it’s successor.
brave new world
Apophis is a Greek name for Apaypi the Egyptian God of Destruction – the Destroyer. Big snake in the Egyptian Netherworld who fights and must be subdued by the newly reborn Ra every night – the struggle makes him strong and better capable of dealing with the vicissitudes of the Day.
Apaypi’s Abode is the Great Sea of Middle Cavern.
Of course, if somehow, he were to escape and bridge the Horn of the Eastern, or of the Western Horizon, and made it into the seas of our world… – then, bad news.