Earth’s oceans are rising at nearly twice the pace seen in the 1960s, fueled by warming water and accelerating ice melt. Scientists say they’ve finally solved a key mystery behind the rapid increase, strengthening confidence in climate predictions.
Sea level rise is one of the most visible consequences of human-driven climate change. As the planet warms, oceans absorb heat and expand, while melting glaciers and giant ice sheets add increasing amounts of water to the seas. Scientists say the process is persistent, difficult to reverse, and likely to continue for centuries.
A new international study has now provided the clearest explanation yet for what has been driving global sea level rise over the past 60 years. The research also resolves a long-standing discrepancy that had left scientists unable to fully account for all observed ocean rise.
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating Worldwide
The study, published in Science Advances and led by researchers in China, found that global sea levels have risen by an average of 2.06 millimeters per year since 1960. More concerning, the pace has accelerated sharply in recent decades, climbing to 3.94 millimeters per year between 2005 and 2023.
Researchers determined that ocean warming is the single largest contributor, responsible for 43% of total sea level rise since 1960. When seawater heats up, it expands and occupies more space, causing ocean levels to increase even without adding extra water.
Melting ice is also playing a major role. Mountain glaciers account for 27% of the rise, while the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes 15% and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contributes 12%. Changes in land water storage make up the remaining 3%.
The scientists found that different factors have become more important over time. Earlier in the record, ocean warming and changes in land water storage were dominant influences. Since the 1990s, however, accelerating ice loss from glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has become a much larger driver of rising seas.
Researchers warn that these trends are expected to continue in the decades ahead.
Scientists Resolve Sea Level Measurement Gap
For years, climate scientists struggled with a puzzling mismatch between measured sea level rise and estimates based on known causes such as warming oceans and melting ice.
The new study says that gap has finally been closed.
“For years, there has been a frustrating gap between how much the oceans were observed to be rising and how much we could explain from the individual causes. This work shows that, with better instruments, processes, and smarter analysis, this knowledge gap can be closed. We can explain sea level rise with greater confidence,” said Prof. John Abraham, School of Engineering, University of St. Thomas; co-author.
The international team included researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tulane University, the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, the University of St. Thomas, and scientific collaborators in France.
According to the researchers, several advances helped solve the problem. Scientists improved corrections to satellite observations that had slowly drifted after 2015, developed better ways to measure land movement near coastal tide gauges, and refined estimates of ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica.
Rising Oceans Expected To Continue for Centuries
The findings also highlight the long-lasting nature of climate-driven sea level rise. Scientists say that even if greenhouse gas emissions eventually stabilize, oceans will likely continue rising for many generations.
That is because oceans warm slowly and store enormous amounts of heat deep below the surface. Massive glaciers and ice sheets also respond gradually to rising temperatures and continue melting long after warming begins. Because of this long-term inertia in Earth’s climate system, researchers expect sea level rise to continue for centuries.
Reference: “Improved closure of the global mean sea level budget from observational advances since 1960” by Huayi Zheng, Lijing Cheng, Sönke Dangendorf, Benoit Meyssignac, Anne Barnoud, Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo and John Abraham, 20 May 2026, Science Advances.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aea0652
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19 Comments
This is nauseating.Grant hunting with monstrously over-blown data. Millimeters? Really? That’s all you have. Go look at old pictures of the statue of Liberty and as it is now. Can you see the millimeter difference. Do ignorant people fall prey to this nonsense?
Agree completely Just look at title… “it’s alarming”.” Where have ferry docks been raised?
All over downtown Charleston, SC houses are being raised up 3 to 5 feet at a cost of $300,000+. Currently, they are spending a lot of money designing a sea wall all around the Charleston peninsula, the cost will be approx 4 billion. Sea level has risen 12 to 14 inches over the past century. This rise has accelerated, now climbing at about 1 inch every 2 years. It has quadrupled in acceleration over the last two decades and are projected to rise another 1.5 to 2.5 feet over the next 50 years, altering the local landscape dramatically.This makes the peninsula one of the most vulnerable coastal areas in the Southeast.
The seawall will not save Kiawah Island, Seabrook, Folly Beach. Isle of Palms, Sullivans Island, that’s billions of dollars of super rich homes. So yeah, “ferry docks” are being raised.
In case you don’t understand why Charleston is in trouble, seal level rise does not happen evenly. The rise discussed in the article is global. Local conditions are much different. Charleston and the entire area is known as “The Lowcountry” for a reason. I have lived here all my life, I see it every single day. My city will not survive. No chance. If it does not happen to me, it will happen to my kids. Houses here will be free for the taking. The city will raise taxes like crazy trying to save the city. Insurance companies won’t touch it. I have seen the local maps. Just waiting for my Mom to pass, then moving inland before the light bulb comes on for everyone. People are still moving here everyday. I should get a good price. For a very limited time.
I hope your Mom doesn’t read this article and your comment
You copied and pasted this from an al gore article in 1985.
google sez: Global sea levels are rising at an accelerating, near-exponential rate. Exponential growth is a process where a quantity increases at a rate directly proportional to its current size. As the quantity grows, its rate of increase also accelerates. This creates a pattern where the value multiplies over time, resulting in a distinct “J-shaped” curve when graphed. The global average has risen over 8–9 inches since 1880. Satellite observations show the annual rate has more than doubled from about 2.1 mm/year in 1993 to roughly 4.5 mm/year currently. Because sea level rise lifts the baseline of the ocean, even a modest rise of a few inches drastically increases the reach and frequency of routine storm surges and high tides, causing a 300% to 900% increase in nuisance flooding in many U.S. coastal communities compared to 50 years ago. U.S. coastlines are projected to rise another 10 to 12 inches on average by the mid-2050s—the same amount of total rise observed over the entire preceding 100 years. By 2100: Global sea levels could surge anywhere from 3 to 10 feet .
Amazing how much the coastline of the US has been developed over the last 50 years. Millions of people have moved there only to realize they shouldn’t have been there in the first place.
Doesn’t really matter how much we understand. China and India produce exponentially more pollution than the rest of the civilized world combined. They’ll never stop so it’s pointless. Don’t live on the coast! I already think people who live places that constantly get demolished by storms are broken in the head.
Careful analysis of satellite data raises some questions about the accuracy and the uncertainty. Notably, the satellites that overlap in time do not agree and one or the other has to be adjusted to get a smooth curve. The descriptions of the design specifications suggest that a proper propagation of error analysis does not justify the claimed precision of the final measurements.
Eastern coastlines are experiencing isostatic rebound in the areas that were under ice during the Pleistocene; the common fore-bulge areas are sinking. Farther south, beyond the influence of the glaciers, broad sediment plains were laid down when the oceans were much lower. As the glaciers melted, the oceans rose, flooding those unconsolidated sediments during the Holocene Optimum; some are now above sea level and are compacting, leading to subsidence. Thus, one cannot speak of uniform behavior for “U.S. coastlines.” Similarly, even the West Coast does not have uniform behavior: https://scitechdaily.com/investigating-californias-rising-and-sinking-coast/
Over five inches since 1960, on average. And more importantly, the rate is increasing sharply. Boston streets never used to flood from just a high tide, same with NYC subways. Yes, it is alarming.
OK folks. What is your problem at current sea-level is an opportunity for my family. I live near the sea on a rising slope at altitude of 60m asl. We are happy to take offers on leasing a potential marina berth at 60m asl. At $250 000 USD per option for a lease to berth it is a fine opportunity for you to invest in your great-great-grandchildrens’ yachting and recreational future.
Ok Greg N…what is a global solution to all of this local mayhem?
Neither the authors of this press release, or any of the commenters up to this point, have made the distinction between the rate of coastal subsidence, particularly the coastal plains of the East Coast, and the rate of the ‘steric’ increases in the elevation of sea level. The apparent sea level rise is the sum of the two different processes. It is well-known that the East Coast (and other places in the world) experience variable but high rates of subsidence, both from natural compaction over time and by the withdrawal of ground water.
Additionally, it should be obvious that as sea level rises, the volume of the ocean basin increases as the water spreads inland. Furthermore, there are good reasons to believe that the hydrostatic pressure of the water column depresses the crust (isostatic compensation), deepening the ocean basins. Countering that is the influx of river sediments decreasing the actual volume that the water can occupy, leading to the sea level rising by the amount of the sediment volume. Imagine what happens if one fills their coffee cup to the brim and then attempts to add a couple of teaspoons of sugar!
They tout that their diagram closes the global mean sea level budget. Yet, as I have pointed out, they have omitted important variables and there are thus significant gaps in the closure of the budget. I think that the researchers should have spent more time thinking about the problem. Actually, they didn’t have to think! Others before them have already published on these omitted variables and their ideas and data are available in the extant literature! The old geological concept of geosynclines was based on the premise that river deltas would depress the crust and accumulate up to 50,000 feet of sediment depth. We now understand that plate tectonics subduction is responsible for subsequent deformation and even metamorphism of those sediments.
However, the point is, they have done the opposite of their claim of closing the gaps in the sea level budget.
Do they really think glaciers melting is something new. Ever since the ice age glaciers have been melting. Was that caused by humans? no. And just like a piece of ice on your counter, the smaller it gets the faster it melts. Is another ice age coming? Who knows.
K.M Towe….
Greg N is giving us a local picture of what’s going on in response to the previous ‘Chicken Littles’ who believe climate change is a hoax.
There’s an attack on science by the current administration, they’re the ones who can do something for this issue.
Citizen scientist like Greg N. aren’t in a position to offer solutions for this problem.
Thanks for your explanation on this Greg N!
Used to live in Portsmouth, England average elevation above sea level 6 feet. Now live in Derbyshire, England at an elevation of approx 400 feet above sea level. Just seemed like the sensible thing to do.
As the Arctic thaws, since it merely floats, there is no change in volume. As the Antarctic thaws, the ice sheets which depress the pole thin, so the depression of the south pole region decreases. The bulge of the Southern Ocean is caused by the depression of the south pole, so a rebound of the Southern Ocean, creating greater room for water is to be expected. That increase in rebound volume will act to decrease ocean levels.
I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you!