The Fastest-Growing Brain Disease Is Set to Double – Are We Prepared?

Parkinson’s disease is set to rise dramatically, with cases expected to more than double by 2050, largely due to an aging population.

Researchers predict 25.2 million people will be living with the disease, with the highest numbers in East Asia and South Asia. The surge is most prominent in regions with moderate development, and the gap between men and women affected is widening.

A Rising Global Challenge

By 2050, an estimated 25.2 million people worldwide will be living with Parkinson’s disease, a 112% increase from 2021, primarily due to an aging population, according to a new modeling study published today (March 6) in The BMJ.

The study predicts that the overall prevalence of Parkinson’s disease per 100,000 people will rise by 76%, while the age-adjusted prevalence is expected to grow by 55%. The highest rates are projected to be in East Asia.

The researchers say these projections “could serve as an aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions, and allocating resources.”

Why Parkinson’s is Spreading So Fast

Despite being the fastest-growing neurological disorder in terms of both prevalence and disability, future estimates for many countries and regions remain limited.

To address this gap, researchers analyzed data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study, estimating Parkinson’s prevalence based on age, sex, and year across 195 countries and territories from 2022 to 2050.

Globally, they estimate that the number of people living with Parkinson’s disease in 2050 will be 25.2 million for all ages and both sexes combined, representing a 112% increase from 2021.

The Role of Aging and Population Growth

By 2050, cases of Parkinson’s disease are projected to increase in all Global Burden of Disease regions, particularly in moderately developed countries in the middle range of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) scale.

The researchers predict that population aging will be the main driver (89%) behind this rise, followed by population growth (20%), with different patterns at the regional and national levels.

They estimate that the all-age prevalence of Parkinson’s disease will reach 267 cases per 100,000 in 2050 (243 for women and 295 for men), an increase of 76% from 2021, while the age-standardized prevalence is expected to rise by 55% to 216 cases per 100,000.

Regional Hotspots and Disparities

The largest number of Parkinson’s disease cases is predicted to be in East Asia (10.9 million), followed by South Asia (6.8 million), with the fewest cases in Oceania and Australasia.

The most pronounced increase in Parkinson’s disease cases by 2050 is expected to occur in western Sub-Saharan Africa (292%), while the smallest increases (28%) are projected in central and eastern Europe, due to negative population growth and a smaller contribution from population aging.

The Gender Divide in Parkinson’s Cases

People aged over 80 are predicted to have the highest prevalence (2087 cases per 100,000) in 2050, while the gap in cases between men and women is also set to widen globally from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050.

Finally, the researchers estimate that increasing physical activity could reduce the future number of Parkinson’s disease cases, whereas stopping smoking may lead to a rise in prevalence, but say these results should be interpreted cautiously.

As this is a modeling study, it has some important limitations, including low availability and quality of data in some regions, a lack of data on risk factors other than demographics, and being unable to accurately predict the prevalence of Parkinson’s disease in various ethnic groups, or the impact of COVID-19.

However, the researchers say that to the best of their knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive projections of the global, regional, and national prevalence of Parkinson’s disease until 2050.

A Call for Innovation and Preparedness

“An urgent need exists for future research to focus on the development of novel drugs, gene engineering techniques, and cell replacement therapies that are aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving patients’ quality of life,” they conclude.

In a linked editorial, researchers welcome this study but say adopting more advanced techniques may allow for better forecasting and ensure that healthcare systems, policymakers, and researchers are equipped with reliable data for long-term planning.

“Future projections should prioritize methods that capture the true complexity of chronic disease progression, ultimately leading to more effective interventions and improved patient outcomes,” they conclude.

Reference: “Projections for prevalence of Parkinson’s disease and its driving factors in 195 countries and territories to 2050: modelling study of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021” by Dongning Su, Yusha Cui, Chengzhang He, Peng Yin, Ruhai Bai, Jinqiao Zhu, Joyce S T Lam, Junjiao Zhang, Rui Yan, Xiaoqing Zheng, Jiayi Wu, Dong Zhao, Anxin Wang, Maigeng Zhou and Tao Feng, 5 March 2025, BMJ.
DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2024-080952

Funding: National Nature Science Foundation of China

Never miss a breakthrough: Join the SciTechDaily newsletter.
Follow us on Google and Google News.