This Cyclone Broke Every Rule – And Now It’s Wreaking Havoc

Tropical Cyclone Alfred, an unusually southern storm for Australia’s east coast, took a surprising turn toward land, putting Brisbane and nearby areas at risk.

Though not the strongest cyclone on record, its slow movement made it a prolonged and dangerous event, bringing torrential rains, coastal flooding, and powerful winds. Experts struggled to predict its erratic path due to complex weather systems, while record-warm sea temperatures helped fuel its intensity. As Alfred loomed over Queensland, residents braced for worsening conditions and severe flooding warnings from meteorologists.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Approaches Australia’s East Coast

Tropical Cyclone Alfred lingered off Australia’s northeast coast for more than a week before closing in on Brisbane, the country’s third-largest city, in early March 2025. Cyclones rarely reach this far south along Australia’s east coast. The last to make landfall near the Queensland–New South Wales border was Tropical Cyclone Zoe in 1974.

As Alfred approached the coast on March 7, it was classified as a tropical storm by the U.S. National Weather Service and a Category 2 cyclone on Australia’s intensity scale. The NOAA-21 satellite’s VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) captured an image (above) of the storm that afternoon, around 1:30 p.m. local time (03:30 UTC).

Slow-Moving Cyclone Increases Hazards

Although not among the strongest cyclones, Alfred still posed a major threat. Its slow movement worsened its impact, allowing heavy rain, storm surges, and strong winds to pummel densely populated coastal areas for days before landfall. Around the time the satellite image was taken, sustained winds reached 80 kilometers (50 miles) per hour.

The tropical cyclone formed over the Coral Sea approximately 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) north of Brisbane on February 22. At one point, Alfred coexisted in the South Pacific with two other tropical cyclones, Seru and Rae. It tracked south and southeast for about a week, intensifying for a period but staying offshore. Cyclones in this area often continue along that trajectory and peter out over the ocean.

Unexpected Turn Toward Land

Initial forecasts predicted Alfred would remain offshore. However, on March 4, it made a sharp turn to the west, steered by a high-pressure ridge to the south. Coral Sea cyclones are difficult to predict, experts say: compared with other ocean basins, the region sees more complex winds and weather systems that can push storms around.

The winds steering Alfred toward land were relatively weak, observers noted, which caused it to move slowly and prolong its effects on the coast. Energy from anomalously high sea surface temperatures in the northeast Coral—some of the warmest recorded for the months of January and February—also helped to fuel the storm system.

Heavy Rain, Flooding, and Coastal Damage

Alfred brought heavy rain and wind to populated areas, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Byron Bay. Weather stations south of Brisbane recorded over 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rain in the week ending on March 6. Large swells and powerful waves pummeled the Queensland coast for several days preceding landfall, causing coastal erosion and inundation, according to Australian Bureau of Meteorology officials. Rain and winds would intensify as the storm crossed, meteorologists said, and the bureau issued major flood warnings for multiple rivers.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Wanmei Liang, using VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE, GIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and cyclone track data from Weather Underground.

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