Researchers at Karolinska Institutet have developed a machine learning model, AutMedAI, capable of predicting autism in children under two with nearly 80% accuracy, using a set of 28 parameters easily gathered before the age of 24 months.
The study, published in JAMA Network Open, highlights the model’s ability to identify key predictors like the age of first smile and presence of eating difficulties. This breakthrough promises to facilitate early interventions, enhancing the quality of life for affected individuals and their families.
Autism Prediction Model
“With an accuracy of almost 80 percent for children under the age of two, we hope that this will be a valuable tool for healthcare,” says Kristiina Tammimies, Associate Professor at KIND, the Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Karolinska Institutet and last author of the study.
The research team used a large US database (SPARK) with information on approximately 30,000 individuals with and without autism spectrum disorders.
By analyzing a combination of 28 different parameters, the researchers developed four distinct machine-learning models to identify patterns in the data. The parameters selected were information about children that can be obtained without extensive assessments and medical tests before 24 months of age. The best-performing model was named ‘AutMedAI’.
Significance and Potential Impact
Among about 12,000 individuals, the AutMedAI model was able to identify about 80% of children with autism. In specific combinations with other parameters, age of first smile, first short sentence and the presence of eating difficulties were strong predictors of autism.
“The results of the study are significant because they show that it is possible to identify individuals who are likely to have autism from relatively limited and readily available information,” says study first author Shyam Rajagopalan, an affiliated researcher at the same department at Karolinska Institutet and currently assistant professor at the Institute of Bioinformatics and Applied Technology, India.
Enhancing Early Diagnosis and Intervention
Early diagnosis is critical, according to the researchers, to implement effective interventions that can help children with autism develop optimally.
“This can drastically change the conditions for early diagnosis and interventions, and ultimately improve the quality of life for many individuals and their families,” says Shyam Rajagopalan.
Future Directions and Model Validation
In the study, the AI model showed good results in identifying children with more extensive difficulties in social communication and cognitive ability and having more general developmental delays.
The research team is now planning further improvements and validation of the model in clinical settings. Work is also underway to include genetic information in the model, which may lead to even more specific and accurate predictions.
Conclusion and Clinical Implementation
“To ensure that the model is reliable enough to be implemented in clinical contexts, rigorous work and careful validation are required. I want to emphasize that our goal is for the model to become a valuable tool for health care, and it is not intended to replace a clinical assessment of autism,” says Kristiina Tammimies.
Reference: “Machine Learning Prediction of Autism Spectrum Disorder From a Minimal Set of Medical and Background Information” by Shyam Sundar Rajagopalan, Yali Zhang, Ashraf Yahia and Kristiina Tammimies, 19 August 2024, JAMA Network Open.
DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.29229
The study was funded by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research, Hjärnfonden and Stratneuro.
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14 Comments
Nothing like letting a computer put your 2 year old on drugs for autism. Don’t worry, it’s 80% accurate, they say.
“The results of the study are significant because they show that it is possible to identify individuals who are likely to have autism from relatively limited and readily available information.” Of course, this will freak out the parents, too, and change the way they treat their child, even if the child is 1 out of 5 without autism despite the computer’s output.
Don’t let computers take over healthcare. It’s bad enough already with stupid doctors who can’t relate to people. And remember that “garbage in, garbage out” still applies to computer models. And there’s lots of garbage.
Unfortunately there are no drugs for autism. Early diagnosis is the key, even if it is false positive.
Autism is vaccine damage thanks to ret@rded parents, period
False positives are not good for the child or their family. Falsely labeling a child as autistic can damage them for life, and creates unnecessary anxiety and grief for their parents.
I have a lot of Autistics in my life, including my daughter who was undiagnosed for 20 years and misdiagnosed, mistreated at school, untreated in early childhood, underserved by professionals and absolutely still suffers from it. All this due to the lack of knowledge about this condition and proper diagnostics to identify those who have to live it. I can attest that getting a diagnosis without any sort of clinical help has been and remains so impossibly hard unless the child presents a significantly impaired, as in, non verbal or unable to communicate by other means, unable to self regulate, and intellectual deficits. Medical professionals and Educators all push it off until they have no choice but to deal because they do not understand how to identify, let alone manage it until the child had failed to reach several long past milestones. So instead of referring, they defer to wait and see, observe…waste precious time in their collective ignorance.
There is so much help to be had on the front end in therapies that will not be paid by insurance companies without a diagnosis. Primitive reflex therapies, feeding therapies, speech and sensory integration therapies. These work together to help the child develop areas of the brain, nervous system and even gut health that have stalled in development. Without these helps, families suffer years of dysregulation, relationships tearing apart, parents at a loss to support their child’s unknown needs and everyone is miserable for literally years, decades. So much has been learned in the past 10 years, let alone the past 20 about presentation of ASD in children, especially in females. Yet the stigma remains and families fear the diagnoses enough to avoid evaluation because they dont know what they are missing out on and how the click is ticking. If an AI can predict ASD in newborn infants that would go so very far to push families to seek formal specialist evaluation, and push insurance providers to cover those expensive evaluations, rather than wasting developmental months avoiding the possibilities until they are so pervasive and the family, the child has suffered daily, nightly 365 days a year, for year upon head-banging year.
So before you hop on that high horse you think you’re hanging onto, sit down. You obviously know way too little to speak for this undeserved community of people.
As a late female Diagnosis at 52… PREACH. I was siagnosed with speech impairment and ADHD in 1975. That basically equates to autism now. My parents did not believe in intervention. I did. I have two ASD kiddos.
Lots of drivel for vaxxx damage
What is wrong with you?
Love this, as a RBT of six years I totally agree. Early intervention is key.
There’s no drugs for autism. Early intervention is about helping kids with their deficiencies to be confident. No matter what your kid is like parents should be in tune with how their kids feel about themselves in different situations.
((my comment was in response to the first comment))
In response to that first comment, “computers” taking over healthcare?!
They would be simply implementing a “program” to help alongside In a clinical environment to aid in detecting early markers
I think what 80% that they’re speaking of the 100%of patient who have autism
Quit spreading propaganda on the Internet your only helping aid in the problem
I’m autistic and I’d feel so much better about myself if anyone would’ve told me that earlier.
Detox the metals and kill the worms derps