Researchers have built a powerful new 3D earthquake simulation that reveals how massive quakes like the 2023 Turkiye disaster unfold in terrifying detail.
By modeling not just the fault but the surrounding Earth structure, they were able to capture the devastating one-two punch of a doublet quake – two major ruptures in quick succession – and how their unusual seismic behavior wreaks havoc. With insights into supershear speeds and unpredictable ground shaking, the model could be a game-changer for predicting quake damage and protecting vulnerable cities.
New 3D Model Offers Earthquake Prediction Breakthrough
An international team of researchers, led by Professor Martin Mai and scientist Bo Li from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), has made a major leap in earthquake modeling. Their new study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, presents a 3D dynamic simulation that offers a more detailed and accurate view of how large earthquakes rupture.
The model uses real data from the devastating February 2023 earthquake in Türkiye to better understand the intense ground shaking during the event – insights that could improve future seismic hazard assessments.
Devastation from the 2023 Turkiye Earthquake Doublet
The 2023 Türkiye earthquake claimed tens of thousands of lives and was unusual in its structure. It consisted of a rare “doublet”—two powerful earthquakes occurring within a short time of each other. The first rupture tore through a roughly 350-kilometer (~220-mile) stretch of fault, breaking in a cascading sequence. Hours later, a second major rupture struck, worsening the damage. Unlike typical aftershocks, doublets are difficult to model because they don’t follow standard patterns.
Simulating Complex Shaking Patterns with 3D Precision
“The combination of 3D fault geometry and 3D Earth structure model makes our simulations much more realistic and explains a wide set of observations very well,” Mai said. These observations include complex patterns of ground shaking, which are often associated with increased damage and higher casualties due to more intense and irregular seismic waves.
Supershear Ruptures and Far-Reaching Damage
The 3D rupture model, which was developed by Li, provides more detail of the earthquake, including how the rupture is triggered and delayed due to the earthquake’s complex geometry and rotational regional stress. The model also demonstrates how changes in the rupture speed, especially for supershear ruptures, which describe ruptures on the fault that propagate faster than the seismic shear wave speed, can change the ground shaking pattern and cause amplified ground shaking far from the earthquake. This phenomenon was also observed during the Myanmar earthquake on March 28, 2025, which caused severe damage in Thailand several hundred kilometers from the ruptures.
Preparing for the Next Big Quake in Active Regions
These types of ruptures are also a growing concern in seismically active regions such as the Middle East.
“Advanced numerical simulations of earthquake physics will help better planning and allocation of resources so that infrastructure and lives are protected from violent doublets,” said Mai.
Reference: “Rupture dynamics and velocity structure effects on ground motion during the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet” by Bo Li, Kadek Hendrawan Palgunadi, Baoning Wu, Cahli Suhendi, Yijian Zhou, Abhijit Ghosh and Paul Martin Mai, 23 March 2025, Communications Earth & Environment.
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02205-4
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