A University of Bristol study highlights a temporary reduction in England’s child mortality during the pandemic, followed by a significant rise post-lockdown.
The research calls for urgent actions to address the increased death rates and widening health disparities.
Pandemic’s Impact on Child Mortality
A new study from the University of Bristol, using data from the National Child Mortality Database (NCMD), has found that child deaths in England temporarily decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic but have since risen to new heights.
Published in PLOS Medicine today (January 23), the study revealed that during the lockdown period (April 2020–March 2021), children were less likely to die than at any other time in recent years, with 377 fewer deaths than expected compared to the previous year.
In the following year (2021–2022), child mortality rates returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, by 2022–2023, deaths had risen significantly, with 258 more fatalities than anticipated based on pre-pandemic trends.
Analyzing Childhood Death Trends
The study aimed to assess changes in the rate and causes of childhood deaths in England across four years—before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdowns—and to understand the impact of the pandemic and related social changes on child mortality.
The researchers identified all those children in England who died between April 2019 and March 2023 and calculated what the rate of death was for each year, for each group of children (e.g., infants or older children), and the cause of death.
Using a mathematical model the research team then tested if the rate of death was going up or down across the 4 years, and if the trend seen was different for the first two years (before and during the national lockdowns) compared to the second two (after the national lockdowns).
Reversal of Mortality Trends Post-Lockdown
Previous research from the same group showed a reduction in deaths during the pandemic across most age groups, regions, and areas of England, and in both boys and girls. But this new work confirms that this reduction was temporary, and deaths were higher in the years after the lockdown period. One category, deaths from birth events, showed a clear increase going into, and during the lockdowns, but then a reduction back to pre-pandemic levels afterward.
These changes may have also increased existing healthcare inequalities, with the relative rate of dying for children from non-white backgrounds, compared to white children, now higher than before or during the pandemic.
Statements and Implications from Health Experts
Karen Luyt, Programme Director for the National Child Mortality Database, Professor of Neonatal Medicine at the University of Bristol and Healthier Childhoods lead at NIHR ARC West, said: “These stark findings demonstrate that, for most children and most causes of death, the reduction in mortality that was seen during the pandemic was only temporary.
“The NCMD’s unique data also tells us that existing inequalities have widened, with outcomes deteriorating for children from poor and non-white backgrounds compared with their peers. But it also shows that change is possible; more must be done to change these trends in the long term, and improve and save children’s lives.”
Reference: “Child mortality in England after national lockdowns for COVID-19: An analysis of childhood deaths, 2019–2023” by David Odd, Sylvia Stoianova, Tom Williams, Peter Fleming and Karen Luyt, 23 January 2025, PLOS Medicine.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004417
The work was supported by the National Child Mortality Database (NCMD) Programme and the National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West).
The research team would like to recognize all Child Death Overview Panels (CDOPs) who submitted data for this report and all child death review professionals for submitting data and providing additional information when requested. In particular, the research team would like to thank parents and public involvement, who are at the heart of the NCMD program.
Never miss a breakthrough: Join the SciTechDaily newsletter.
Follow us on Google and Google News.
3 Comments
Some of us were vocal from the get go that the lockdowns were a bad idea.
A very serious issue is the impact of vaccination on the sharp increase in child mortality after insane lockdowns.
Indeed.
But they ain’t gonna talk about THAT for another ten years.