New Study Indicates North Atlantic Is Close to a “Tipping Point”

Powerful Ocean Storm

The findings indicate that, before the Little Ice Age, the North Atlantic climate system lost resilience and destabilized, potentially forcing it to “tip” into a new, colder state.

A Little Ice Age study reveals new information about the North Atlantic climate system.

Scientists have examined centuries-old clam shells to determine how the North Atlantic climate system reached a “tipping point” before the Little Ice Age. The Little Ice Age, a period of regional cooling that was particularly pronounced in the North Atlantic, lasted for many centuries and came to an end in about 1850.

A long-standing theory contends that the period’s initial cooling was maintained by “sea-ice to ocean feedbacks”; as the sea ice expanded, ocean currents slowed, which in turn decreased the flow of warm water from the south.

The University of Exeter conducted a new study that examined how the ocean has changed and responded to external changes over the last few centuries using the shells of quahog clams, which can survive for several hundred years.

Ocean Quahog Clam

Ocean quahog clam. Credit: Paul Kay

The results demonstrate that the North Atlantic climate system lost resilience (the ability to recover from external changes) and destabilized before the Little Ice Age, which may have caused it to “tip” into a new, colder state. Additionally, according to the experts, a new tipping point in the North Atlantic may be near, which has major consequences for the climate of the region.

The work aids in our understanding of how and when tipping points are triggered, which is important given that scientists have warned that many tipping points may now be approaching worldwide due to human-driven climate change.

“One way to tell that a system is approaching a sudden transition is that it becomes slow to respond to perturbations (external changes),” said lead author Beatriz Arellano-Nava, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute. “In other words, a system loses the ability to return to its average state, and can instead ‘tip’ into a new state.”

“In the case of the North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age, this loss of resilience made the system vulnerable to an abrupt switch, potentially heralding the transition to Little Ice Age conditions,” said Dr. Paul Halloran, who co-led the research.

The new study warns that the vulnerability of the North Atlantic system is a critical issue today, with recent analysis suggesting it has destabilized during the last century and might be approaching a tipping point.

“Our latest analysis suggests that the system of ocean currents in the northern North Atlantic could be at risk of a tipping point again now due to global warming, leading once again to abrupt climate change over Europe,” said Professor Tim Lenton, Director of the Global Systems Institute.

Analysis of clam shells focussed on oxygen and carbon isotopes and shell growth – all of which can be used as measures of environmental variability.

Reference: “Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age” by Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Paul R. Halloran, Chris A. Boulton, James Scourse, Paul G. Butler, David J. Reynolds, and Timothy M. Lenton, 25 August 2022, Nature Communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32653-x

The study was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program.

47 Comments on "New Study Indicates North Atlantic Is Close to a “Tipping Point”"

  1. Elegant proof that global warming is garbage. Now. The new buzz term is “climate change”

    • Maybe you haven’t been paying attention, but both terms have been used for decades. Climate Change is far more accurate. Too many were too thick to understand that CO2 does not simply make things warmer everywhere.

      • Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 3:31 am | Reply

        Climate Change has become a dumping ground for anything that causes heat like HEAT ISLANDs in cities that are not climate.
        CO2 is a TRACE GASS in the atmosphere, that means less than 1%. 400 PPM is 0.04% in the atmosphere, PPM is EXCEEDINGLY SIMPLY to calculate! This tiny percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is EASILY cooled by evaporative cooling. So now you say in a panic, there are other greenhouse gasses that create more heat, like METHANE! All of those are also TRACE GASSES and the amounts are SOO TINY, the atmosphere is OBVIOUSLY MUCH BIGGER THAN YOU CAN UNDERSTAND!

        • Rendon Holloway | October 22, 2022 at 8:51 am | Reply

          Nothing but a typical climate-denier troll attempt at pseudoscientific obfuscation. Along the lines of:
          “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bulls***.”
          ― W.C. Fields

          • Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 5:33 pm |

            400 PPM is 0.04% in the atmosphere and the trace gas in the atmosphere CO2 is claimed by so called climate scientists to be very near that rate — ALL FACTS! And turning 400 PPM into a percentage is very very easy to do, anyone can calculate it if they just bothered to learn how.
            Put 1,000,000 on a piece of paper. Line up 400 below it with the last 3 zeros in the million and write that below it. Where is 1%, one percent is 10,000 PPM so it is the second zero from the right in the million. That means CO2 is about 0.04 percent in the atmosphere, a TRACE GAS.

            The BULL**** on top of you head is now running down into your eyes, nose, and mouth!

          • Doctor Dolittle | October 23, 2022 at 2:26 am |

            BTW, I don’t want to exaggerate or over state how much CO2 there is in the atmosphere. I get my numbers for CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observatory NOAA on the big island Hawaii, from their website. For many years their data for CO2 has been available for download under the label “Trace Gasses”, realize they had the scientist who pioneered electronic CO2 measurement, on the side of what has often been called the most active volcano on Earth and active volcanos always have gasses like CO and CO2 coming out of the ground all around them.
            The introduction from their website …
            “Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) is located on the north flank of Mauna Loa Volcano, on the Big Island of Hawaii, at an elevation of 3397 meters, or 11,135 feet above sea level. The observatory is a premier atmospheric research facility that has been continuously monitoring and collecting data related to atmospheric change since the 1950’s.“

            Also, a very important thing to understand about CO2 measurements is that they are ALWAYS supposed to be expressed as sea level measurements, because CO2 IS NOT evenly distributed in the atmosphere, so called climate scientists started to admit this in 2013, CO2 is a little bit heavier than O2 or N2 the main constituents of Earth’s atmosphere so that is why there is more CO2 at sea level. How the Mauna Loa Observatorie’s measurements equate to sea level measurements is beyond me, and why it’s OK to measure CO2 on the side of a volcano is also a mystery to me. So actual correct sea level measurements of CO2 could be significantly lower than 400 PPM.
            Here is what comes up from the National Geographic Society when I Google “main elements in earth’s atmosphere” …

            “Earth’s atmosphere is composed of about 78 percent nitrogen, 21 percent oxygen, 0.9 percent argon, and 0.1 percent other gases. Trace amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, and neon are some of the other gases that make up the remaining 0.1 percent.May 19, 2022“

          • One love project | January 5, 2024 at 4:06 pm |

            Brother Rendon please check our inbox and reply as soon as possible brother 🙏

  2. “… a new tipping point in the North Atlantic MAY be near …”

    I’m reminded of Mark Twain’s famous remark that he had been on the verge of being an angel his whole life.

    These dire warnings are inevitably couched in weasel words like may, could, or might. Any fool can speculate about possibilities. That is the basis of science fiction. The point of science is to predict the behavior of a system with numeric probabilities.

    All the authors have provided is some measurements. What is notably missing is a refined working hypothesis beyond “may cause.”

    • Did you read the research or are you intentionally trying to conflate science with a random article on the internet? The phrasing of the article is trash.

  3. Well the term Global warming was used by politicians. Climate change is what was warned about over twenty years ago. Hotter summers for some, colder winters for some.
    Only an ostrich would not be able to recognize the signs. Two largest reservoir in west drying up. Glacier national parks glacier is all but gone, Mississippi river is shut down and people in desert that have stupidly move into arid uninhabitable locations want to tap water from rivers in east.

    • Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 4:39 am | Reply

      Don’t you think the two largest reservoirs in the West dried up because the 4 users of the water were Phenix, Las Vegas, California, and the Mexican coastal cities below the boarder, ALL with unprecedented uncontrolled growth and altogether using the water at a rate much higher than it ever recovered each year? Yah, you know what, THAT is the answer, it had NOTHING TO DO WITH SO CALLED CLIMATE CHANGE!

    • Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 4:50 am | Reply

      Oh, BTW, I recently moved to a desert town bought a home in the desert and we got TWICE the normal rainfall this year during the monsoon season. We get ALL our water from the local mountains and our water supply is in GREAT condition, and while the Colorado river passes by to the North of us and cities to the south use that water, WE DO NOT USE ANY! And there is no one in this area considering expanding our water supply from any source, we just got twice our normal amount of rain in the monsoon season!

  4. The water is going to flip over.

  5. Rendon Holloway | October 21, 2022 at 5:48 pm | Reply

    Who to believe? On the one hand, dedicated scientists at a respected research university; on the other hand, astroturfer trolls paid by Big Oil & King Coal to post bogus climate-denial talking points in online social media. Gee, that’s a tough one.

    • Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 3:03 am | Reply

      Smoke another joint, it will come to ya …
      … don’t cha thunk?

    • “… astroturfer trolls paid by Big Oil & King Coal to post bogus climate-denial talking points …”

      I presume that you have tangible evidence to support your claim and you just forgot to cite your impeccable source(s). Now is your chance to correct that oversight.

      • Rendon Holloway | October 23, 2022 at 10:04 am | Reply

        A few articles that interested readers can google:
        – Billion-dollar climate denial network exposed [reporting on peer-reviewed research]
        – Astroturfing works, and it’s a major challenge to climate change [reporting on peer-reviewed research]
        – Biggest US coal company funded dozens of groups questioning climate change
        – Coal Company Bankruptcy Reveals how “Dark Money” is Buying Congress and Funding Climate Change Denial
        – Conservative groups spend up to $1bn a year to fight action on climate change
        – Secretive donors gave US climate denial groups $125m over three years
        – Paid Commenters Hired By Fox News To Spread Right Wing Talking Points Across The Net
        – Climate Deniers Taking a Page Out of Big Tobacco Playbook
        – Astroturfing the climate wars: five ways to spot a troll
        – “Dark Money” Funds Climate Change Denial Effort
        – Climate deniers: Ukip in bed with corporate America

  6. If only those guys in the 15th century had switched to electric cars – 🤣

  7. So many commenters. So many morons.

  8. Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 2:57 am | Reply

    These so called scientists have been banking on the ignorance of the public of the HUGE natural variability of the climate over the last few millions of years, and these so called scientists have become RICH! Now, they have become SOO ARROGANT they present you with a completely NATURAL event from the past and claim that YOUR artificial manipulation of the environment leads to THE SAME THING!? COMPLETELY CRAZY if we REALLY ARE heading directly into a new little ice age for the next two hundred years it can ONLY BE, BECAUSE ALL OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS COMPLETE NONSENSE!

    The very simple answer being that evaporative cooling from the number one greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, water vapor, which they ignored, easily and completely cooled all the heating that the other increased greenhouse gases might have caused.

    Why is a new little ice age starting, because it’s natural, it would have started even if we thought inflatable clowns scared the sun away!

    • Rendon Holloway | October 22, 2022 at 8:48 am | Reply

      Bogus. The geological record shows that the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean waters has two modes: the present overturning mode that brings heat from the tropics to the Northern latitudes, and a gyre mode that promotes glaciation above the 45th parallel, which includes parts of the US, nearly all of Canada and much of Europe. Global warming interferes with the overturning mode, and pushes the system toward the gyre mode; that is what the actual science is telling us. (And as to the claim that scientists ignore the effect of atmospheric water vapor, that is a barefaced lie.)

      • Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 5:10 pm | Reply

        I didn’t say the so called scientists were ignorant, I said the they IGNORE water vapor and evaporite cooling, LEARN TO SPEAK ENGLISH, they have said this openly for YEARS AND TO SAY OTHERWISE IS A BAREFACED LIE! If there are two observable modes in a geological record then that means nature oscillates between those two modes. If it tips over to the cooling mode then the planet is cooling itself from a natural heating and when it is cool enough it will tip back to the mode we are familiar with. You have NO UNDERSTANDING of nature!
        Smoke another joint you feel a lot better. BTW, I never ever touch that stuff, it’s really really BAD FOR YOUR HEART, all those years people like you told children its medicinal, SHAME ON YOU!!!

        • Rendon Holloway | October 23, 2022 at 10:19 am | Reply

          Typical climate-denier troll behavior: when their bogus talking points are exposed for the lies and fallacies that they are, they start up with the personal insults.

      • So, are you saying that warming is more important than the Milankovitch Cycles in promoting glaciation?

        The Oligocene and Miocene were cooler than the Paleocene and Eocene, but then they were not periods of glaciation and appear to be more related to extensive global Oligocene vulcanism. There was no significant warming immediately preceding the Pleistocene. Actually, there was a long cooling during the Pliocene, immediately preceding the Pleistocene. Actual geologic history doesn’t support your claim about warmth triggering glaciation. Plate tectonics would appear to play a more significant role.

        • Rendon Holloway | October 23, 2022 at 10:29 am | Reply

          The main climate-change datasets are
          * thermometer surface temperature
          * satellite lower atmospheric temperature
          * glaciers
          * sea ice
          * ice sheets
          * ocean subsurface temperature
          * sea level
          And guess what–ALL of them indicate warming. The convergence of multiple, independent lines of evidence in favor of a rapidly warming climate is OVERWHELMING.
          Moreover, in the case of the rapid warming trend since the 19th century, climatologists have carefully RULED OUT all climate forcings EXCEPT for the enhanced atmospheric greenhouse effect due to elevated CO2 levels from human consumption of fossil fuels. That is the ONLY hypothesis that fits the facts.

  9. Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 3:21 am | Reply

    My brother keeps telling me Climate Change is REAL! Arg, HELP! So I ask him what would the climate be like if there were no SUVs, no Climate Change? His answer, THIS IS THE TRUTH, he says worldwide temperatures would be THE SAME AS IN 1600! The SAME AS THE LITTLE ICE AGE, so Climate Change cures itself. Let’s burn more fuels and burn EVERYTHING to dump more CO2 into the atmosphere, the sea will tip over again and warm up, WOPPY!

  10. Donald Westcott | October 22, 2022 at 10:45 am | Reply

    If these global warming scientists are honest they would acknowledge that in nature nothing is static. 22,000 years ago the planet experienced the peak of the last ice age. (An awful time to be living btw). Since then we have been in a global warming trend. To suggest that trend is not a natural occurrence is ignorant of history.

  11. Doctor Dolittle | October 22, 2022 at 5:53 pm | Reply

    There is a very telling TRUTH about this Climate Change propaganda. REAL scientists like to use metaphors to communicate their findings to the public and they use metaphors to make it easier to understand. But scientists also teach in their university lectures that metaphors are not real, they almost NEVER match up well enough with the data to be a PERFECT METAPHOR. So REAL scientists are very careful about how they choose their metaphors, they want to get as close to perfect as possible!
    Now in SO CALLED climate sciences the metaphor used all the time is “GREENHOUSE GAS”, when referring to CO2 and the other stronger warming gasses like methane. But methane is NOT a greenhouse gas it is very strongly warming, if this was REAL science it would be called a HOTHOUSE GAS. I grew up working in greenhouses, I got an agricultural degree, I KNOW THAT THERE ARE GREENHOUSES AND HOTHOUSES AND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO!
    If today’s so called climate scientists were REAL scientists their poor use of metaphors would have been called out and corrected long ago, these people claiming to be scientists are NOT SCIENTISTS AT ALL, they are politicians paid for by federal government grants!

    • Rendon Holloway | October 23, 2022 at 10:39 am | Reply

      Nothing but anti-science gobbledygook. A quick check on the academic credentials of the top climate scientists immediately puts the lie to these bogus claims:
      – – – – –
      Michael E. Mann
      AB (honors) in applied mathematics and physics, UC Berkeley
      MS & MPhil in physics, Yale University
      PhD in geology & geophysics, Yale University
      Awarded the Philip M. Orville Prize for outstanding dissertation in the earth sciences.
      – – – – –
      James Hansen
      BA (with highest distinction) in physics & mathematics, University of Iowa
      MS in astronomy, University of Iowa
      PhD in physics, University of Iowa
      – – – – –
      Etc., etc.

      • James Hanson, the pied piper of climate change worshippers like yourself, your GOD is human destruction. You belief that anything that goes wrong is climate change caused by CO2 is your obedience to a set of beliefs design to protect special interests from litigation.

    • If climate change were real and the press cared about reporting it accurate then they would NOT report don’t daily highs because that is WEATHER, climate is the daily average high so they report changes in the average high if they understood what climate change really was.

  12. Rendon Holloway | October 23, 2022 at 11:25 am | Reply

    Don’t be fooled by the lies, distortions and fallacies of the global-warming disinformation campaign, created and funded by billionaire magnates of the fossil-fuels industry. Their sole purpose is to create false doubt and confusion around sound climate science. They are using exactly the same tactics that the tobacco industry used against medical research showing a link between smoking and cancer. Here is what actual science tells us about global warming and the climate change it is driving.
    – – – – –
    (1) The effective temperature of the Earth as seen from space is about 32 degrees Fahrenheit below freezing. This would also be the average temperature at the surface of the Earth were it not for the atmospheric greenhouse effect. From these two simple facts we see that the atmospheric greenhouse effect is both real and very important for life on Earth.
    (2) At present the most important greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are water vapor and carbon dioxide. Of the two, water vapor is the more potent, but the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere is itself a strong function of temperature; for this reason, it is carbon dioxide which is the main driver of the warming process that results from the atmospheric greenhouse effect, while water vapor acts as a feedback, amplifying the effect of the carbon dioxide.
    (3) Humans are adding over 30 billion tons of excess CO2 to the atmosphere every year through the consumption of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. This is the reason that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has risen from 280 ppm at the start of the Industrial Revolution in about 1750 to over 400 ppm today, an increase of over 40%, with most of it taking place in just a few decades. (We know through carbon-isotope signatures that almost all the added CO2 comes from human activity.) The result is an enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse effect, which in turn produces a substantial positive imbalance in the Earth’s energy budget. The only way to correct this imbalance is for the Earth to warm. That is what basic physics tells us, and the measured temperature record confirms this.
    (4) Economists who have informed their economics with the best climate science available, as published in the world’s top peer reviewed scholarly journals, tell us that adapting to the severe consequences of unchecked global warming will in the long run be hugely more expensive than taking mitigating action today. Too cold is bad for humanity, but likewise too hot.
    – – – – –
    From these four premises, there is only one possible conclusion that a rational thinker who cares about future generations of humanity can come to, and it’s not to stick your head in the sand and try to convince yourself and others that the problem doesn’t exist.

    • The press reports that sea levels are rising do to climate change, yet this is never confirmed by science. Science says that that we are in the Holocene and the rate of sea leave rise is the same it has been for thousands of years.

    • Small island nations coastlines are eroding much more rapidly than they have in the past and some islands have been evacuated, it is claimed this is because of climate change. Yet SAND MINING of the oceans, done by massive corporations is the actual cause and claims of climate change protects these huge corporations, special interests from litigation.
      China building artificial islands off their coasts is where these sands mined from ocean floors are being used.

    • The press claims that the North pole ice is nearly gone and this is killing polar bears. The truth is anyone can Google “North Pole sea ice” and they will get a link to a map that shows the extent of the sea ice in many previous years and currently the extent of that ice is completely NORMAL and has been for the entire record! And polar bears are not disappearing, they are in-fact multiplying so fast they are over running North Pole towns.

    • I recently found an article from a science journal which documented NASA helping NOAH to put a new weather satellite into orbit. The rocket was stuck on the launchpad because the satellite was malfunctioning. And the contract with the company that built the satellite was required to fix the satellite before the launch and NASA was waiting for them to do this, but then they went ahead and launch anyway. An attorney general that was a watch dog for MASA in this process wrote a complaint about NASA and this was linked to in the article, I read that complaint. The attorney general said NASA should have fined the contractor 100 thousand dollars for their error in not fixing the satellite before launch, it was in their contract NASA could have done this but they did not and were waisting tax payer dollars the attorney general said. The result of making putting the broken satellite into orbit was that it would not measure temperatures correct and NASA said NOAH could make corrections to estimate the temperature. The purpose of putting the new satellite into orbit was to replace old weather satellites with new technology weather satellites, which over course they completely FAILED in that goal. NOAH being able to make corrections to the temperature readings allows them the FAKE CLIMATE CHANGE, and NASA not requiring the contractor of the satellite to fix the satellite before launch and NASA not fining them 100 thousand for their failure was clearly a bribe to keep them mouths shut about what really happened, luckily there was an attorney general doing his job so the public could discover that CLIMATE CHANGE IS FRAUD!

  13. Wow, yet another tipping point. It is sad that the pseudo scientific “feedback loops” are still referred to. It is also sad that the lie that the LIA was regional is also still promulgated.

    But, if the globull warming hucksters couldn’t lie, they would have nothing to say.

    • Rendon Holloway | October 24, 2022 at 9:43 am | Reply

      Utter nonsense. Feedback exists in nature in all systems and at all scales, from the nuclei of atoms, to the formation of galaxies, and everything in between. As for tipping points, they are very real, and easily demonstrated. Lift one side of a coffee cup a little bit by the handle and then let it go: gravity pulls the cup back onto its base. Lift it a little higher and the same thing happens. This is an example of negative feedback: the force of gravity *opposes* the displacement. But if the cup is tilted beyond a certain angle — the tipping point, in fact — and then released, the outcome changes: gravity pulls the cup onto its side. This is an example of positive feedback: the force of gravity now *aids* the displacement. So tipping points are the points at which the feedback changes from negative to positive. And just as the coffee cup has two modes, sitting on its base or lying on its side, the circulation ot the waters of the Atlantic Ocean (Gulf Stream, etc.) also has two modes, the present overturning mode, which brings warm tropical waters to the higher latitudes, and a gyre mode, which doesn’t. Human caused global warming is like raising the handle of the coffee cup: disturb the the system of Atlantic currents sufficiently, and it will flip. Finally, regarding the so-called Little Ice Age (a colorful name, not a scientific description): it was a widespread, but not global phenomenon, plus it had different causes in different regions. This is a well established scientific fact.

      • The reason the West is experiencing loss of water resources is because the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix have been growing at historically unprecedented rates for decades and taxing their water resources above there know rates of recovery, any idiot would know this is the cause of drought and failed water supplies. Climate change is NOT the cause.

      • In recent years in California there have been large persistent fires. It is understood by locals in California that these fires have been frequently caused by PG&E aging electrical components on power poles. This is rarely reported in the press especially outside of California the press is much more likely to blame climate change, which is INCORRECT!

      • Doctor Dolittle | November 13, 2022 at 1:17 am | Reply

        In very recent years there were large fires in the fall in Los Angeles but also near Portland and in the Rocky Mountains directly West of Boulder CO. All of these areas were locations where the radioactive dust clouds from the Fukushima disaster passed when those clouds passed through the USA. It is very likely that tiny radioactive particles rise high up into the atmosphere from nuclear bomb testing and explosive nuclear disasters like Fukushima and Chernobyl, when the USA and Russia were testing nuclear bombs there were soo many bombs going of each year there is no way to draw direct cause and effects between bomb tests and unusually large fires, but there does seem to be a correlation of new record large fires occurring tow to three years later. We are told the trees in our forests are dried out and dead because of bark beetles, perhaps the truth is radioactive particles are sticking to flower’s anthers in the tops of forest trees and also sap. I Googled something like “Chernobyl fires” and found that a university near Chernobyl had publish a paper about the radioactive dust that they found in the soot from a fire in a forest next to the Chernobyl nuclear power plants and confirmed that the soot was also landing in the forests nearby that were not burning. Thus, over the years those forests will be much more likely to burn seemingly hotter than normal and the trees may die because the nuclear particles are toxic.
        Of course, if governments admitted all the affects of Climate Change are caused by their experiments with nuclear testing and other things like sand mining and uncontrolled growth, very embarrassing litigation could occur, it is much easier for world governments to spread crazy lies that the world’s population has doomed itself by its addiction to petroleum. Yes, oil exploitation is very dirty and accident prone but those mistakes do end in litigation. Our governments irresponsible exploitation of science has had unintended consequences beyond our government’s and most ordinary people’s understanding is an untold story!

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