Researchers warn that climate change threatens two-thirds of the world’s temperate rainforests by 2100, emphasizing the urgent need for reduced emissions and restoration efforts.
These forests are vital for carbon storage and biodiversity, especially in the UK, which holds significant restoration potential.
Temperate Rainforest Vulnerability
A new study from the University of Leeds warns that up to two-thirds of the world’s temperate rainforests could be lost to climate change by 2100.
This research represents the first global assessment of how rising temperatures threaten these unique ecosystems. Using maps of tree cover, forest health, and climate data, scientists analyzed the extent to which temperate rainforests have already been impacted by human activity and how climate change could push many regions to a critical tipping point.
Published today (November 12) in the scientific journal Earth’s Future, the study’s results are stark. In the worst-case scenario, 68% of the world’s temperate rainforests—and up to 90% in certain regions—could disappear within decades. Under current emissions reduction commitments, 23% of these forests would still be lost. However, if fossil fuel emissions are drastically reduced, this loss could be limited to just 9%, underscoring the urgent need for swift climate action.
The Importance of Temperate Rainforests
Temperate rainforests are restricted to areas with cool and moist climates. Countries which have temperate rainforests include Canada, USA, Chile, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK.
Despite covering less than 1% of the Earth’s land surface, they are recognized for their global ecological importance and carbon storage properties with intact temperate rainforests having higher carbon density than forests in other latitudes.
Ben Silver, a Research Fellow from Leeds’ School of Earth and Environment led the study. He said: “Unmitigated climate change is a disaster for temperate rainforest in the UK and globally, as they cannot survive the kinds of high summer temperatures which we are starting to observe more regularly and are only predicted to worsen in future climate change simulations.
“Our study also shows that if we work hard to slow climate change it is not too late to save the world’s temperate rainforests.
We hope our study will support the conservation of temperate rainforests by identifying those areas that are the least or the most vulnerable to climate change, and where there is potential to restore forest.”
Britain’s Unique Position in Rainforest Conservation
In the UK temperate rainforest are found along the UK’s western seaboard, including the West coast of Scotland, North and West Wales, Devon, Cornwall, Cumbria, and parts of Northern Ireland.
The Woodland Trust, which recognises temperate rainforests as a key conservation and restoration priority, describes them as one of the most biodiverse habitats, with the high humidity and low temperature range creating the perfect conditions for moisture-loving lichens and bryophytes (mosses and liverworts).
Temperate rainforests now cover less than 1% of land in Great Britain and last year governments in both Scotland and England announced plans to restore them.
Conclusion and Call for Leadership
The study concludes that the UK has more potential for restoration than anywhere else in the world as it hosts a quarter of the world’s unforested temperate rainforest climate zone. The study also found that UK rainforests are resilient to low and medium amounts of future warming.
Professor Dominick Spracklen, a co-author of the study said: “The UK could and should be a global leader in restoration of temperate rainforests. New funding and bold action by large landowners are urgently needed to help deliver government targets for temperate rainforest restoration.”
Dr Dominick A. DellaSala, Chief Scientist of the U.S group Wild Heritage, and one of the authors of the study, added: “All the world’s rainforests are the ‘lungs of the planet’ that must be protected and restored as natural climate solutions to avoid the worst of global overheating. Temperate rainforests need to take their place alongside tropical rainforests and the boreal forests of the north as strategically vital to a safe climate.”
Reference: “Large Reductions in Temperate Rainforest Biome Due to Unmitigated Climate Change” by Ben Silver, Dominick V. Spracklen, Dominick A. DellaSala and Callum Smith, 12 November 2024, Earth’s Future.
DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004812
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3 Comments
uhh, forests need carbon. And since all the world’s fauna, forests and jungles grew in 0.2% carbon and it only fell to the present and drastically low carbon ratios, we might think to disallow the constant but well paid hum singing this utter hucky-puck. If levels were to drop by half, to 0.02%, all plant life will die away. And that is why the money hucksters pushing this need to tone back the hysteria.
In the Jurassic period it was much warmer and there was more CO2 in the air than today – and the forests were THRIVING. Now these bozos want to convince us otherwise…
“Unmitigated climate change is a disaster for temperate rainforest in the UK and globally, as they cannot survive the kinds of high summer temperatures which we are starting to observe more regularly and are only predicted to worsen in future climate change simulations.”
Not sure how this justifies people rabbiting on about percentages of atmospheric CO2 and what forests did what during the Jurassic, which was some time ago, but to me it says that the sorts of modern and unusual high summer temperatures in the UK (30 degree C or higher) are not good for the temperate rain forests in the UK and globally. Those sorts of high temperatures in the temperate regions are not particularly conducive to vegetation that has evolved to cope with not infrequently wet temperate climates, unlike the eucalyptus forests of Australia which cope with 40 degrees C from time to time and also can survive some very serious Australian bush fires, which eucalyptus trees also enhance once fire breaks out.