Thawing Permafrost Threatens 3 Million People: 5 Key Risks Uncovered

The first comprehensive study examining the social impacts of thawing permafrost soils across the Arctic.

An international research team, led by the University of Vienna in collaboration with the Technical University of Denmark and Umeå University, conducted a comprehensive interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary study to examine the social risks associated with thawing permafrost in Arctic regions.

The study identified five major risk areas: infrastructure, transport and supply chains, water quality, food security, and health. The researchers highlighted increased risks from thawing permafrost, including greater exposure to infectious diseases, the release of contaminants, and disruptions to essential supply routes. These findings have been published in the esteemed journal Communications Earth and Environment.

Thawing permafrost has significant consequences for both the Arctic environment and its inhabitants. In addition to releasing substantial amounts of carbon dioxide and methane—amplifying global climate change—the thaw affects the livelihoods of the approximately three million people living in Arctic permafrost regions. Understanding these risks is critical for effective policy development and the implementation of adaptive strategies.

Key Risks Identified in Arctic Regions

To identify these risks, the scientists studied four Arctic regions between 2017 and 2023 as part of the “Nunataryuk” project: Longyearbyen (Svalbard, Norway), the municipality of Avannaata (Greenland), the Beaufort Sea region the Mackenzie River Delta (Canada) and the Bulunskiy district in the Republic of Sakha (Russia).

The team included engineering and physics scientists as well as environmental, social, and health scientists.

“The comprehensive risk analysis was made possible by intensive exchange with local stakeholders and permafrost scientists, and for the first time includes not only physical processes but also a comprehensive overview of social impacts of thawing permafrost soils,” explains anthropologist and co-study director Susanna Gartler from the University of Vienna.

Infrastructure, Ecosystems, and Food Security

The researchers identified five interrelated key hazards: infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supply, decreased water quality, challenges to food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants. Infrastructure in coastal areas, along rivers, in deltas, and mountainous regions is particularly at risk.

As one study participant reported, “I have a camp by the river. This summer, a large piece of land next to my cabin broke off and plunged into the river. It’s scary.” Some erosion is slow, but in delta regions, large chunks of land can break off literally overnight. In terms of health and ecosystems, there is concern for contaminants from old oil and gas sumps being released by thawing soils. Historically, the industry left waste in the ground, assuming that the soils would remain permanently frozen – a fact that is now changing dramatically with increasing global warming.

In Canada and other regions where the population is heavily dependent on hunting and fishing, erosion also affects food security as hunting and fishing cabins become more difficult to reach, soils turn to quicksand, and thaw slumps (a type of landslide) must be avoided.

In Longyearbyen on Svalbard, the thawing of the permafrost also threatens access to clean drinking water, as the dam of the main source, Isdammen, is built on frozen ground. This is a major concern for the health and well-being of the local population. In the follow-up project ILLUQ, the scientists are now investigating the complex of topics related to permafrost, health, and pollution.

Reference: “A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw” by Susanna Gartler, Johanna Scheer, Alexandra Meyer, Khaled Abass, Annett Bartsch, Natalia Doloisio, Jade Falardeau, Gustaf Hugelius, Anna Irrgang, Jón Haukur Ingimundarson, Leneisja Jungsberg, Hugues Lantuit, Joan Nymand Larsen, Rachele Lodi, Victoria Sophie Martin, Louise Mercer, David Nielsen, Paul Overduin, Olga Povoroznyuk, Arja Rautio, Peter Schweitzer, Niek Jesse Speetjens, Soňa Tomaškovičová, Ulla Timlin, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Jorien Vonk, Levi Westerveld and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, 16 January 2025, Communications Earth & Environment.
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01883-w

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