Coronavirus Map: Distribution of COVID-19 cases as of March 14, 2020. Credit: WHO
Note: There is now a newer Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Situation Report 55.
WHO Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Situation Report 54
- 13 new countries/territories/areas have reported cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.
- The Director-General said yesterday that Europe has now become the epicenter of the pandemic, with more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined, apart from China. Many countries are now acting on the eight pillars of WHO’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan. For more details, please see here.
- WHO published guidance on ‘Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) when COVID-19 disease is suspected’ on March 13. The document provides clinicians with updated interim guidance on timely, effective, and safe supportive management of patients with suspected and confirmed COVID-19. For more details, please see here.
Risk Assessment
China: Very High
Regional Level: Very High
Global Level: Very High
Coronavirus Situation in Numbers
Globally
- 142,539 confirmed cases (9,769 new)
- 5,393 deaths (438 new)
China
- 81,021 confirmed cases (18 new)
- 3,194 deaths (14 new)
Outside of China
- 61,518 confirmed cases (9,751 new)
- 135 countries/territories (13 new)
- 2,199 deaths (424 new)
Countries, territories, or areas with reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, March 14, 2020
| Country/Territory/Area | Confirmed Cases |
|---|---|
| China | 81021 |
| Italy | 17660 |
| Iran | 11364 |
| Republic of Korea | 8086 |
| Spain | 4231 |
| France | 3640 |
| Germany | 3062 |
| United States of America | 1678 |
| Switzerland | 1125 |
| Netherlands | 804 |
| United Kingdom | 802 |
| Denmark | 801 |
| Sweden | 775 |
| Norway | 750 |
| Japan | 716 |
| International (Diamond Princess Cruise Ship) | 697 |
| Belgium | 599 |
| Austria | 504 |
| Qatar | 262 |
| Bahrain | 210 |
| Singapore | 200 |
| Australia | 197 |
| Malaysia | 197 |
| Canada | 176 |
| Czech Republic | 150 |
| Slovenia | 141 |
| Portugal | 112 |
| Finland | 109 |
| Israel | 100 |
| Kuwait | 100 |
| Brazil | 98 |
| Greece | 98 |
| Egypt | 93 |
| Iraq | 93 |
| Ireland | 90 |
| United Arab Emirates | 85 |
| India | 82 |
| Estonia | 79 |
| Lebanon | 77 |
| Thailand | 75 |
| Indonesia | 69 |
| San Marino | 66 |
| Philippines | 64 |
| Poland | 64 |
| Romania | 64 |
| Saudi Arabia | 62 |
| Iceland | 61 |
| Vietnam | 48 |
| Chile | 43 |
| Luxembourg | 38 |
| Palestinian Territory | 35 |
| Argentina | 34 |
| Russian Federation | 34 |
| Albania | 33 |
| Serbia | 31 |
| Slovakia | 30 |
| Peru | 28 |
| Croatia | 27 |
| Panama | 27 |
| Algeria | 26 |
| Mexico | 26 |
| Brunei Darussalam | 25 |
| Georgia | 25 |
| Costa Rica | 23 |
| Ecuador | 23 |
| Belarus | 21 |
| Pakistan | 21 |
| Hungary | 19 |
| Oman | 19 |
| South Africa | 17 |
| Colombia | 16 |
| Latvia | 16 |
| Tunisia | 16 |
| Cyprus | 14 |
| Malta | 12 |
| Azerbaijan | 11 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 11 |
| Senegal | 10 |
| Maldives | 9 |
| North Macedonia | 9 |
| Armenia | 8 |
| Republic of Moldova | 8 |
| Afghanistan | 7 |
| Bulgaria | 7 |
| Cambodia | 7 |
| Jamaica | 7 |
| Morocco | 7 |
| French Guiana | 6 |
| Guyana | 6 |
| Lithuania | 6 |
| Martinique | 6 |
| New Zealand | 6 |
| Paraguay | 6 |
| Sri Lanka | 6 |
| Dominican Republic | 5 |
| Réunion | 5 |
| Turkey | 5 |
| Cuba | 4 |
| Liechtenstein | 4 |
| Bangladesh | 3 |
| Bolivia | 3 |
| Faroe Islands | 3 |
| Puerto Rico | 3 |
| Ukraine | 3 |
| Andorra | 2 |
| Burkina Faso | 2 |
| Cameroon | 2 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2 |
| Honduras | 2 |
| Jersey | 2 |
| Monaco | 2 |
| Nigeria | 2 |
| Saint Martin | 2 |
| Venezuela | 2 |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 1 |
| Bhutan | 1 |
| Cayman Islands | 1 |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 1 |
| Ethiopia | 1 |
| French Polynesia | 1 |
| Gabon | 1 |
| Ghana | 1 |
| Gibraltar | 1 |
| Guadeloupe | 1 |
| Guernsey | 1 |
| Guinea | 1 |
| Holy See | 1 |
| Jordan | 1 |
| Kenya | 1 |
| Mongolia | 1 |
| Nepal | 1 |
| Saint Barthélemy | 1 |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 1 |
| Sudan | 1 |
| Togo | 1 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 1 |
| Total | 142539 |
Recommendations and Advice for the Public
If you are not in an area where COVID-19 is spreading, or if you have not traveled from one of those areas or have not been in close contact with someone who has and is feeling unwell, your chances of getting it are currently low. However, it’s understandable that you may feel stressed and anxious about the situation. It’s a good idea to get the facts to help you accurately determine your risks so that you can take reasonable precautions.
Your healthcare provider, your national public health authority, and your employer are all potential sources of accurate information on COVID-19 and whether it is in your area. It is important to be informed of the situation where you live and take appropriate measures to protect yourself.
If you are in an area where there is an outbreak of COVID-19 you need to take the risk of infection seriously. Follow the advice issued by national and local health authorities. Although for most people COVID-19 causes only mild illness, it can make some people very ill. More rarely, the disease can be fatal. Older people, and those with pre-existing medical conditions (such as high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes) appear to be more vulnerable.
I believe that the Coronavirus will follow a similar pattern as other virus that jump from animals to humans. At first they are very contagious and have a high death rate, as time progresses the death rate drops and the severity of the virus infection decreases. This pattern was followed in China for about three months. This is the pattern that will likely be for the virus as it infected other populations. As time passes in all countries and the course of the infection over time the severity and the death rate will drop, and Coronavirus will become endemic with the human population and possibly will cycle at different times from humans to animals and humans to animals.
Based on the graphs and tables I predict the infection rate and severity of the coronavirus will decrease and fade through May.
China did not save China from the virus. I estimate that roughly 70-80% of those infected are minor infections. It followed the natural course of the virus relationship with humans, and Trump cannot claim victory in May or June.