Dissatisfaction in a relationship will eventually lead to separation. A recent study supports this idea, drawing on the concept of terminal decline.
The end of a romantic relationship rarely happens overnight. A recent psychological study found that warning signs often emerge one to two years before a breakup.
Researchers identified two key phases in the final stage of a relationship. The first is a slow, steady decline in relationship satisfaction. This continues until a critical turning point is reached. After that, satisfaction tends to drop quickly, frequently leading to the relationship’s end.
“From this transition point onwards, there is a rapid deterioration in relationship satisfaction. Couples in question then move towards separation,” explained Professor Janina Bühler from the Institute of Psychology at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU). She conducted the study in collaboration with Professor Ulrich Orth from the University of Bern. Their findings were recently published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Analysis built on national studies from Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands
It is widely recognized that satisfaction in romantic relationships tends to decline over time, particularly in the early years. Many couples experience a noticeable low point after around ten years together. Instead of examining how satisfaction changes from the beginning of a relationship, Bühler and Orth focused on how it changes as couples approach separation.
To explore this, they analyzed data from four nationally representative studies conducted in Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. These countries share similar characteristics as WEIRD societies—Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic—where individuals are legally free to choose their relationship status.
The researchers examined a total of 11,295 individuals from couples who eventually separated, and compared them with a control group of similar size made up of couples who stayed together. The data came from surveys conducted over periods ranging from 12 to 21 years. In Germany, they used data from the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (pairfam), a long-term interdisciplinary study. In all four countries, participants regularly reported how satisfied they were with their romantic relationships at the time of each survey.
Using the available data, Bühler and Orth assessed the extent to which the satisfaction with the relationship developed in the light of their subsequent separation. “In order to better understand dissolving relationships, we examined them from the point of view of time-to-separation. To do this, we applied a concept that is in general use in other fields of psychology,” said Janina Bühler.
Based on the data of the four national representative studies, the researchers were able to determine that relationships can be subjected to what is known as terminal decline. This decline in relationship satisfaction occurs in two phases. The initial preterminal phase, which can have a duration of several years, is characterized by a minor decline in satisfaction. However, this is followed by a transition or tipping point from which there is an accelerated decline in satisfaction. The terminal phase of a relationship after this transition point lasts 7 to 28 months, one to two years on average. “Once this terminal phase is reached, the relationship is doomed to come to an end. This is apparent from the fact that only the individuals in the separation group go through this terminal phase, not the control group,” explained Bühler.
Partners assess the terminal phase of a relationship differently
At the same time, the two partners do not experience the transition phase in the same way. The partner who initiates the separation has already become dissatisfied with the relationship at an earlier point in time. For the recipient of the separation, the transition point arrives relatively shortly before the actual separation. They experience a very rapid decline in relationship satisfaction.
“Partners pass through various phases. They do not normally separate from one day to the next, and the way these phases impact on the two partners differs,” added Bühler. In many cases, couples seek help too late, i.e., when the transition point has already been reached. “It is thus important to be aware of these relationship patterns. Initiating measures in the preterminal phase of a relationship, i.e., before it begins to go rapidly downhill, may thus be more effective and even contribute to preserving the relationship,” concluded Bühler, who also works as a couples therapist.
Reference: “Terminal decline of satisfaction in romantic relationships: Evidence from four longitudinal studies” by Janina Larissa Bühler and Ulrich Orth, 20 March 2025, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
DOI: 10.1037/pspp0000551
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