Extreme melting of the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating rapidly due to climate change, with major increases in frequency and intensity.
A study led by the University of Barcelona and published in Nature Communications shows that climate change has significantly reshaped extreme melting events across the Greenland ice sheet, increasing their frequency, geographic reach, and intensity.
Since 1990, the area affected by these extreme episodes has expanded by about 2.8 million km2 per decade. Over the same period, meltwater production has risen dramatically, climbing from 12.7 gigatons per decade between 1950 and 2023 to 82.4 gigatons per decade in recent decades.
Melting events intensify and expand
Most of the most severe melting episodes have occurred in the modern era. Seven of the ten largest events have taken place since 2000, including major episodes in August 2012, July 2019, and July 2021 that stand out for their unprecedented behavior.
The study identifies a clear increase in the amount of meltwater generated during these events. Since 1990, meltwater production during comparable atmospheric conditions has risen by 25% compared to the 1950-1975 period, and by as much as 63% when considering all extreme events together.
Northern Greenland has emerged as a particularly vulnerable region, showing some of the most pronounced changes. Looking ahead, projections under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios suggest that by the end of the century, extreme meltwater anomalies in this region could increase up to threefold.
New analysis links warming to extremes
The research was led by Josep Bonsoms, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Geography at the University of Barcelona, with contributions from Marc Oliva, professor in the same department. Conducted within the Antarctic, Arctic, and Alpine Environments (ANTALP) Research Group, the study examined extreme melting events recorded from 1950 to 2023 using a new analytical framework.
This method combines patterns of anticyclonic and cyclonic air circulation with a regional climate model, allowing the team to separate the influence of thermodynamic factors related to atmospheric warming from dynamic factors linked to circulation patterns.
Amid growing global attention on Greenland, driven by rapid environmental changes and broader geopolitical implications, these findings carry added significance. Bonsoms, the article’s lead author, says that “the rapid transformation of the ice sheet not only has global environmental consequences, such as sea level rise and possible alterations in ocean circulation, but also places the Arctic at the center of new strategic, economic and territorial dynamics.”
Understanding what drives these increasingly intense melting events is critical for anticipating future risks and supporting policy decisions grounded in scientific evidence.
Reference: “Record-breaking Greenland ice sheet melt events under recent and future climate” by Josep Bonsoms, Sergi González-Herrero, Xavier Fettweis, Marc Lemus-Cánovas, Marc Oliva and Juan I. López-Moreno, 11 February 2026, Nature Communications.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-69543-5
Disclosure: The study is part of the GRELARCTIC project carried out by the UB ANTALP research group, with Marc Oliva as principal investigator, and has been conducted with the support of an award from the ICREA Academia programme.
This work falls within the NEOGREEN (PID2020-113798GB-C31), HIGHARCTIC (PID2023-146730NB-C31), and GRELARCTIC (PID2023-146730NB-C31) projects from the ANTALP research group (2021-SGR-00269).
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2 Comments
“Since 1990, the area affected by these extreme episodes has expanded by about 2.8 million km2 per decade.”
This is expected behavior during an interglacial episode. Without evidence that the peak of the Holocene interglacial has already occurred, or should have, there is nothing particularly alarming about the claim. During the Eemian interglacial, it was warmer than currently and probably all but the larger alpine glaciers had melted. That is, the current outlet glaciers had all melted and re-forestation was taking place. Again, there is nothing unprecedented taking place.
“Since 1990, meltwater production during comparable atmospheric conditions has risen by 25% compared to the 1950-1975 period, …”
How certain can they be of that claim when 1950-1975 is essentially the pre-satellite era, with the first moderate-resolution Landsat satellite being launched in 1972? For that matter, what is the margin of error on their percentage estimates? They don’t say.