A sweeping 23-year follow-up of more than half a million Americans reveals that those who load up on ultra-processed fare—from sugary sodas to deli meats—face about a 10 % higher risk of dying, especially from heart disease and diabetes.
The link remained even when weight, smoking, and overall diet quality were factored out, hinting at something uniquely harmful in heavily engineered foods.
Ultra-Processed Diet Tied to Early Death
A major research study suggests that older adults who eat a lot of ultra-processed foods may face a higher risk of dying earlier. People who reported eating the most processed foods were about 10 percent more likely to die over the next two decades compared to those who ate the least.
The study followed more than half a million U.S. adults for nearly 30 years, making it one of the largest of its kind. The researchers found that eating more ultra-processed foods was linked to a small but noticeable increase in deaths from all causes, especially from heart disease and diabetes. However, no clear link was found with cancer-related deaths.
“Our study results support a larger body of literature, including both observational and experimental studies, which indicate that ultra-processed food intake adversely impacts health and longevity,” said Erikka Loftfield, PhD, Stadtman Investigator at the National Cancer Institute. “However, there is still a lot that we don’t know, including what aspects of ultra-processed foods pose potential health risks.”
Big Cohort Sheds Light on Risky Foods
The research analyzed data from more than 540,000 people who shared details about their diets in the mid-1990s, when they were between 50 and 71 years old. More than half of the participants have since passed away. Scientists compared death rates between those who ate the most ultra-processed foods and those who ate the least, while also looking at which types of processed foods might be most harmful.
“We observed that highly processed meat and soft drinks were a couple of the subgroups of ultra-processed food most strongly associated with mortality risk, and eating a diet low in these foods is already recommended for disease prevention and health promotion,” said Loftfield. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommend limiting sugar-sweetened beverages and processed meats such as hot dogs, sausages, and deli meat.
For this study, researchers used multiple strategies to classify the level of processing for various food items. This included breaking down food frequency questionnaire data into particular food and ingredient types in addition to incorporating expert consensus to categorize dietary components according to a rubric known as the NOVA classification system.
Hidden Dangers Persist Despite Confounders
The researchers also accounted for other factors that can increase a person’s risk of death, such as smoking and obesity. They found that people who consumed more ultra-processed foods also tended to have higher body mass index and a lower Healthy Eating Index score (a measure of diet quality based on how closely a person’s diet aligns with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans). However, the analysis showed that these variables did not explain the associations between ultra-processed food consumption and increased mortality, as the associations between higher ultra-processed food intake and mortality risk persisted among people categorized as having better or worse diet quality, as well as among those classified as normal weight or obese.
One caveat is that the study design did not allow researchers to determine causality. In addition, Loftfield noted that the U.S. food supply and dietary preferences have changed considerably since the study’s baseline data were collected in the mid-1990s, underscoring the importance of continued research to further elucidate the relationships between food processing and human health.
Reference: “Ultra-Processed Food Intake and Mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study” by Erikka Loftfield, Caitlin P. O’Connell, Leila Abar, Lisa Kahle, Xuehong Zhang, Xinyuan Zhang, Longgang Zhao, Leandro Rezende, Renata Bertazzi Levy, Fernanda Rauber, Charles E. Matthews, Hyokyoung G. Hong, Linda M. Liao, Rashmi Sinha, Neha Khandpur and Eurídice Martínez Steele, 30 June 2024, NUTRITION 2024.
A version of this article was originally published in July 2024.
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13 Comments
“The researchers found that eating more ultra-processed foods was linked to a small but noticeable increase in deaths from all causes, especially from heart disease and diabetes. However, no clear link was found with cancer-related deaths.” While I do believe that ultra-processed foods are unhealthy this is a garbage study. Finding a correlation does not mean you can draw a conclusion. It could be just as likely that people who tend to eat more ultra-processed foods also tend to make other choices which contribute toward the same result focuses on. None of that seems to have been addressed or factored in to this “study”, instead conclusions are drawn based on what they chose to look at. This is closer to a hypothesis than a study and far too many publications have become happy to publish correlative finds as studies recently.
Jim so well said!!
Thank you, RFK Jr for looking into this!
MAHA!
From the picture, catchup, mustard may also play a role not mentioned. I have reduced my intake of dell’s since my brother had a heart attack about three years ago. He is 84 now. And little old me, 83, borderline diabetes, shooting for the stars, 100. LOL
The American diet has improved some over the last couple decades, but we’re still among the world leaders in obesity diabetes and heart disease. RFK Jr is at least willing to take on the big food manufacturers that have been poisoning Americans for decades. Now if he can just get the FDA to do their jobs
It’s true. Sodas hotdogs sausage deli meats over processed over sugared and salted foods contribute to degenerative diseases. Also seed oils and chemicals like nitrates and nitrites. And greasy donuts. There are better choices to be made to counteract our obesity and degenerative disease epidemic.
I’ve eaten almost nothing but these three things since I was 2 years old: Hot Dogs, Bologna, and French Fries. I’m now 48 and while I have had some health problems, none of them are what is listed here and no doctor has EVER told me that I need to stop. Just about any food can kill you, so these “studies” are a waste of time, money, and intellectual resources. Until we cure cancer, they need to knock off wasting time on silly things like this.
I ain’t eating no fleshtone hotdogs.
I try to eat healthy at times and not so much at other times. I believe that people can eat pretty much all foods if you eat in moderation exercise on a regular basis and pray God’s blessings over the food you do eat.
Yes
I’ve seen people who lived healthy and didn’t smoke have heart attacks in their 40’s.
Richard Simmons died at 76.
Jim fix was in his 50’s and died while jogging, a sport he advocated as a part of a healthy lifestyle.
You can look at trends, but if you’re not looking at all the factors, you’re not gonna know what causes the issues.
In the end, I think genetics plays more into it than anything. Some people are going to die younger than others no matter what they do in their lives and I think very little about how you live is going to change that unless your overweight or smoke like a chimney
But I don’t believe your choice of having a hot dog at night rather than the goulash your spouse made is gonna make any difference at all.
History is littered with people who lived healthy and died young.
Michel Montignac was 66
Jim fix was 52
Richard Simmons was 76
Nathan Pritikin Was 76
Paavo Airola Was 64
Robert Atkins was 72
Robert E. Kowalski was 65
Adelle Davis Was 70
The list goes on of dietitians and health advocates who died before reaching advanced age
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is 79 loads up on cheeseburgers and overweight as any American and he’s still kicking around just fine
Economics your availability to proper medicine is probably a much more important factor than anything you eat, but as I said, the other post, your body is just gonna die when it dies genetics rules everything
Ooh I hope so taste great and is killing me quicker?!? Win win if you ask me just biding time till death or ww3.