Is the World Misclassifying Famine? Researchers Say the Current Threshold Is Failing Millions

Standard famine mortality thresholds may miss early warning signs of starvation, prompting calls for more context-sensitive measures.

Recent humanitarian emergencies have highlighted weaknesses in the single mortality benchmark used worldwide to declare famine. Critics say relying on one universal death rate can mask how starvation develops in different populations.

In a paper published in The Lancet, researchers from Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and their colleagues argue that the way famine thresholds are set needs a thorough reassessment.

A universal threshold under scrutiny

“The mortality thresholds used by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) were developed for rural African settings, not middle-income urban populations,” said L.H. Lumey, MD, PhD, Columbia Mailman School professor of Epidemiology. “There are stark disparities in how famine mortality is assessed across contexts.”

According to Lumey and his co-authors, severe food crises can persist without being formally classified as famine because they fail to meet the IPC’s Phase 5 standard of two deaths per 10,000 people per day. This means that large-scale starvation may not trigger an official declaration until it is already far advanced.

Absolute rates miss population-specific harm

The researchers also point out that the IPC emphasizes overall mortality rates while overlooking steep relative increases in specific groups, particularly young children. Historical data from the Dutch Hunger Winter, which Lumey has studied extensively, demonstrate the problem.

During that famine, birth weights fell, and the number of births declined, followed by a sharp increase in child deaths. In major cities, infant mortality in March 1945 reached four times its prewar level, and mortality among children ages one to four rose sevenfold. Yet, as Lumey noted, “these dramatic increases would not meet the current IPC famine threshold for children under five.”

Another concern is timing. Mortality reflects damage that has already occurred, making it a delayed signal of crisis. By the time death rates cross an official threshold, many deaths that could have been prevented have already happened. In addition, famine classification can become entangled in politics, especially when access to accurate mortality data is limited or controlled.

“Identifying earlier indicators of famine stress could shorten the time between acute food insecurity and rising mortality,” Lumey said. “A more sensitive and context-specific approach would support faster humanitarian action.”

Reference: “Rethinking current famine classification: insights from history” by Ingrid de Zwarte, Alex de Waal and L H Lumey, 13 February 2026, The Lancet.
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00214-X

Never miss a breakthrough: Join the SciTechDaily newsletter.
Follow us on Google and Google News.