For decades, seismologists have worked to understand and predict earthquakes, but forecasting remains elusive. Now, scientists are investigating an intriguing link between solar activity and seismic events.
Using advanced models, researchers found that fluctuations in solar heat impact Earth’s surface temperature, potentially affecting tectonic movements. This effect, while not the primary cause of earthquakes, could improve prediction accuracy. If refined, this method might one day offer crucial warnings, helping to save lives before disaster strikes.
Understanding Earthquake Mechanics
Seismologists understand the fundamental mechanics of earthquakes: as tectonic plates shift, they build up strain energy that eventually releases, triggering seismic events. However, accurately forecasting earthquakes remains a major challenge. Without reliable predictions, cities remain vulnerable to disasters like the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tōhoku earthquake, which caused a devastating tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear crisis, resulting in over 18,000 deaths.
Recent research has explored whether the sun or moon might influence seismic activity. Some studies suggest that tidal forces or electromagnetic effects could interact with the Earth’s crust, core, and mantle, potentially playing a role in earthquake patterns.
Investigating the Role of Solar Heat
A new study published today (March 4) in Chaos by AIP Publishing, led by researchers from the University of Tsukuba and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology in Japan, investigates whether Earth’s climate — particularly temperature changes driven by solar heat — affects earthquake activity. This builds on their previous 2022 study, which found a connection between sunspot activity and seismic patterns, suggesting a possible causal link.
“Solar heat drives atmospheric temperature changes, which in turn can affect things like rock properties and underground water movement,” said author Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha. “Such fluctuations can make rocks more brittle and prone to fracturing, for example — and changes in rainfall and snowmelt can alter the pressure on tectonic plate boundaries. While these factors may not be the main drivers of earthquakes, they could still be playing a role that can help to predict seismic activity.”
A Data-Driven Approach to Forecasting
Using mathematical and computational methods, the researchers analyzed earthquake data alongside solar activity records and surface temperatures on Earth. Among other findings, they observed that when they included Earth surface temperatures into their model, the forecasting became more accurate, especially for shallow earthquakes.
“That makes sense, since heat and water mostly affect the upper layers of the Earth’s crust,” said Junqueira Saldanha.
Toward a New Earthquake Prediction Model
The findings suggest the transfer of solar heat to the surface of the Earth does affect seismic activity, however minutely, and that incorporating solar activity predictions into detailed Earth temperature models may help issue earthquake forecasts.
“It’s an exciting direction, and we hope our study sheds some light on the bigger picture of what triggers earthquakes,” said Junqueira Saldanha.
Reference: “The role of solar heat in earthquake activity” by Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha, Masanori Shiro, Yuji Yagi and Yoshito Hirata, 4 March 2025, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science.
DOI: 10.1063/5.0243721
Never miss a breakthrough: Join the SciTechDaily newsletter.
Follow us on Google and Google News.
6 Comments
Because most things expand when they are heated, I can see how the sun might be responsible for some small Normal or Reverse fault movement. However, Strike-Slip or Transverse faults that are hundreds of miles long and exhibit creep are much more problematic! One would expect the creep to increase. I’m unaware of any evidence for that.
Several people have suggested that the moon, which creates tides in large bodies of water, would similarly create rock tides. And the amount of rock movement has been calculated. However, after several decades, no one has demonstrated a cause and effect relationship between the moon and any earthquakes.
I suspect that this research may end up being another, all too frequent, research effort that can’t be replicated.
Hot and dry summer days in California are automatiucally referred to as Earthquake Weather by the locals.
The most famous California earthquake occurred in 1906. More specifically, in the very early morning on April 18th. Not exactly a hot, dry day.
Wow for a split second I said to myself FINALLY they’re willing to accept this obvious connection between solar storms and earthquake activity BUT I read the article and wouldn’t you know it YOU STILL GOT IT WRONG.. the objective remains to totally ignore observable scientific phenomena and instead model our way to to a conclusion that justifies the continued manipulation of our weather because the climate “change” is primarily the result of our existing oh the hubris……
But I theoretically believe that the Electrical impact of solar activities such as son spots and solar flares eruptions that create solar wind which consequate teluric currents into the earth, is a very severe factor in triggering fault slips and massive quakes.