In 2022, Europe experienced unprecedented heat leading to 68,000 deaths, with research attributing 56% of these to human-induced climate change.
A detailed analysis using historical temperature data revealed that women and the elderly were disproportionately affected. This has prompted calls for urgent, enhanced climate adaptation and mitigation efforts across the continent.
Record Heat and Health Impact
The extreme temperatures during Europe’s summer of 2022 led to over 68,000 deaths, according to research from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), supported by the ‘la Caixa’ Foundation. A new study reveals that more than half of these heat-related deaths—about 56%—were driven by human-induced climate change. Researchers found that 38,154 of the 68,593 deaths could have been prevented in the absence of anthropogenic warming.
The study builds on earlier research that analyzed temperature and mortality records from 35 European countries to estimate heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022. By using a dataset of global surface temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2022, researchers estimated the temperature increase attributable to human-caused warming in each region. They then adjusted recorded temperatures to estimate what they would have been without these human-driven increases. Finally, using the model developed in the previous research, they projected the expected mortality in a scenario with these adjusted, lower temperatures.
Regional Disparities in Heat-Related Mortality
The results, published today (October 29) in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, showed that the number of heat-related deaths per million inhabitants attributed to anthropogenic warming was twice as high in the Southern regions compared to the rest of Europe.
In line with previous studies, the team found a higher number of heat-related deaths attributed to climate change among women (22,501 out of 37,983 deaths) and people aged 80 years or more (23,881 out of 38,978 deaths) as opposed to men (14,026 out of 25,385 deaths) and people aged 64 years or less (2,702 out of 5,565 deaths).
“This study sheds light on the extent to which global warming impacts public health. While we observe an increase of heat-related mortality across nearly all the countries analyzed, not everyone is affected equally, with women and the elderly particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of rising temperatures,” says Thessa Beck, ISGlobal researcher, and the study’s first author.
Call for Action Against Climate Change
Temperatures in Europe are rising twice as fast as the global average, exacerbating health impacts. But climate change has not only exacerbated heat-related mortality in exceptionally hot summers as in 2022. According to the study’s findings, between 44% and 54% of heat-related summer mortality between 2015 and 2021 can be attributed to global warming. In absolute terms, this corresponds to an annual burden of between 19,000 and 28,000 deaths. By comparison, the figures for 2022 show an alarming 40% increase in heat-related mortality and a two-thirds increase in mortality attributed to anthropogenic warming.
“Our study urgently calls on governments and national authorities in Europe to increase the ambition and effectiveness of surveillance and prevention measures, new adaptation strategies, and global mitigation efforts. Without strong action, record temperatures and heat-related mortality will continue to rise in the coming years,” says Joan Ballester Claramunt, Principal Investigator of the European Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT.
Reference: “Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer” by Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne and Joan Ballester, 29 October 2024, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2
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3 Comments
Well, obviously, if you’re too active in the heat, it may end up taking toll on your health. The best thing is to lay low and be inactive.
“…, with research attributing 56% of these to human-induced climate change.”
How can they be so certain when there isn’t general agreement on the climate sensitivity, that is, the increase in average global temperature for a doubling of CO2 concentration? Speaking of which, what is the margin of error on the 56% claim?
Heat alone is an inferior predictor of how people will react to thermal stress. Heat Index, which includes humidity is a better metric. Yet, there is no mention of Heat Index or humidity in this summary. This is a strange oversight because it is a study based on European mortality, where relative humidity should be as commonly measured today as temperature. The maps showing mortality and temperatures [Not shown in this article.] don’t show a high correlation between maximum temperatures and maximum mortalities. Perhaps this is because the Heat Index is a more accurate predictor of mortality than just temperature. In any event, I’m not impressed by the experiment design or the conclusions.
Far more die of cold